I have spent years working palladium, trying to figure what this overlapping bull market is. When we can’t figure out where we are, we sure will have problems forecasting anything. In the chart above, we’re lucky if we can see a decent impulse wave anywhere except for some Minute degree runs. I look at palladium from a diagonal wave pattern perspective, with Cycle degree wave 3 terminating at the January, 2018 peak. Time will confirm if our present peak will hold
When Palladium crashed from the 1980 peak it crashed with a zigzag containing a long tail that is nowhere being equal in length to the “A5” wave. If a zigzag has ended with a long “C5” wave just once, then I allow it to happen in all my wave counting at all degree levels. 1929-1932 is another prime example of a long trailing “C5” wave, so the precedent has been set.
The crash down into the 1982 bottom and the bullish phase to the 2000 peak, was also a zigzag with a stretched “C5” wave. Long trailing “C5” waves are very common, so I look for them all the time. Now that I have talked about those nasty long “C5” waves the 2000-2009 crash was a “flat” and it even turned into a running flat as well. The crash in 2002 was also a zigzag but it was a leading “A3” wave into a flat. (3-3-5). In a diagonal wave pattern, the flats do appear, but they can appear in wave 2 crashes as well. As long as wave 2 and wave 4 alternates the flats and zigzags are acceptable. It is wave 1,3 and 5 that should contain zigzag wave structures and with a bit of variability it will keep the wave analyst busy trying to force a diagonal into an impulse wave structure.
Crude oil made the same diagonal rally from 1999 to 2008, yet every expert wave analyst forced this bull market into an impulse. Palladium seems to have a good track record of horrific crashes so there is no reason why we can’t expect another palladium crash. Will palladium stop at the bottom trend line or will this trend line get sliced in two?