US Dollar Intraday Decline Review

 

DXY00-June-7-2016

 

The US dollar has slowly worked its way down, which sure looks like an impulse wave decline at this time. In order for gold to keep making its bullish moves,  the US dollar has to remain bearish. I may have to kick my degrees up by one level, but I may do that once this impulse heading down has played out.  The only way this impulse will work is if we start with two sets of 1-2 waves, and even then we could hit yet another potential “A” wave bottom.

All this is strictly speculative thinking based on an impulse that could die about as fast as it started. On the 3rd of June the new moon was setup for the weekend. We still have 8 trading days left before the next full moon. Full moons can be very bullish for stocks, but it does not always work out that way.  

The moon cycles can provide turning dates and I occasionally use them to see if they work. The jury is still out, but they can provide about 12-14 day cycle durations.   

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Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review

 

ESY00-June-7-2016

 

This is the cash chart of the Mini SP500 and is just used in lieu of an index. The June contract will be finished in 10 days, or sooner, after which we will swing into the September contract. With this chart, we still have not exceeded May 2015 highs, but we are so close to breaking out.   Now it becomes important for the SP500 to show some clarity, and not leave us with this mess of topping peaks.  This would kill any hope of a potential, wave two top,  in Intermediate degree.   In a perfect world, I would like to see a cleaner top, but I have to stop whining as this world is not perfect.  Elliott Waves will do everything in their power to constantly try and fool us, as no wave count is a sure bet.

This surely can’t go on forever and we have to see when this next set of 5 waves is going to complete. What type of pattern any decline makes is the most important thing as if they are corrections then another leg up will happen. For close to a year this market has gone sideways with virtually no real net gain. We need all the discouraged stock investors to head  into gold as it is pretty hard to ignore all the gains gold has made, while stocks bounce around like a wild rabbit!   

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Review.

 

GCY00-June-7-2016

 

Gold has made a nice correction, or should I say, “it looks like one”.  Gold bottomed close to the 30th of May and since then has pushed north.  If this is the start of another major leg up, then gold has to perform, or act like an idealized impulse wave should. It will be critical for the rest of this week,  as we do not want to see anymore lower lows, but would rather see gold charge to the moon.   

We could be in a “C” wave bullish run so this could mean that a “D” wave bull market can be in progress.  Another major leg up would blow the doors off the $1300 price level and then gold could run to $1400+. That’s the rosy bullish picture, but we have to keep looking for the probability that the bullish assessment is wrong. Hopefully it will not take too long to help confirm the bullish side of this gold move.     

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DJIA Intraday Bull Market Review: Melt Up or Meltdown?

 

 

YMM16-June-7-2016

 

Once again the stock market has roared, charging up and creating another higher high.  The potential for this pattern to be in an expanded flat is too big to ignore, but at the same time a diagonal can still play out.  One pattern, could send the markets to a crushing decline, while the other will only take it part of the way. After another correction the 17,840 price level will become important, as that would push the 4th wave diagonal decline to its limits.

 The SP500 is more mundane compared to the DJIA, as the DJIA only has 30 stocks in it. If you want wild moves, then the DJIA will provide it as the SP500 would be a pussy due to the SP500 containing 500 stocks. The more stocks, the more it will act like a big sponge.   As much as we can lump the DJIA and SP500 with the same wave counts, there are big differences which do not always confirm each other.  

Of course, if this still turns into a diagonal 5th wave, then we also know that a potential bigger wave count will also be due. 

George Soros’s fund has bet against stocks and is bullish on gold . This is  good news to help support a bearish wave count, while others are calling for a “melt-up” .   Either way, when the majority is bullish then, who is left to get in?  We eventually always get back to the same old question of who will be the “Greatest Fool”, buying at the very tip of a bullish phase?

Of course traders will do just about anything, jumping on and off any running bandwagon. As their stop loss orders get hit, they can turn bulls into bears, and bears into bulls, very quickly.  

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Review

 

CLN16-June-6-2016

 

Crude oil has been wobbling around the $50 price level, and I am still expecting a correction that may take WTI oil down a notch or two. The $44 price level would be a good price target as any previous low can act like a support level.  I read a news story that includes a chart of all the oil carriers positions in the mid east.  This was fascinating to see as millions of barrels of oil are still floating around waiting for a spot to unload.  Ships in transit also were included.

Of course, there is a flip side to this as the supply destruction is also still in full swing. In the long run this bull market in oil is still alive, but a correction should happen, as many are very bullish with this bull market. Some are using the  $120 oil already.

When many are bullish then it is usually time for some type of a correction, and I favor another zigzag within a bigger diagonal pattern.  We are still a long way away from any potential “A” wave in Minor degree.  This bullish phase may not be finished as diagonals can drag on and on, then when you have thrown in the towel, and surrendered to the oil bulls, oil turns around, and heads south. 

Short term I am bearish, but longer term this bull market is far from over. 

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Bullish Phase Review

 

Ymm16-June-6-2016

 

Since the beginning of June, the DJIA has been on a rally, but this rally is not an impulse as the important waves started to overlap very quickly. This instantly puts doubt as to the staying power of this rally, but a diagonal 5th wave could be active as well. Of course, if the DJIA crashes down, then an “E” wave bottom could be completed, which means another potential 5th wave run.  I would love to see a bit more to go, and the market to clear that the May 30th peak, with a bit more enthusiasm.  

This market has not broken to new highs since the May 2015 time period so all the crying about the markets being in a 20% bear market has disappeared very quickly. Just goes to show how easy it is for the markets to fool the herd of investors and all of us wave counters as well.  It is not clear enough at this time if the DJIA is at a potential wave 2 top in Intermediate degree, as diagonals can act this way.  In the bigger scope of things this market should eventually die, but it could do it with diagonal patterns, that will force us to keep pulling out our hair.  Diagonal declines  do act so much like corrective waves, that it can take a long time before we clue in that a much bigger decline is actually in progress. 

HDGE only has about 15 cents to go before it has a downside breakout situation, but who says the HDGE has to fall much lower? It would be a horror show if the HDGE “had” to make an inverse stock split as that would give HDGE a price hike, but also give it much more room to fall.  This has happened so many times with many ETF type asset classes. I’m not saying this is a certainty, but when some of these ETF classes get closer to $5, an inverse stock split may happen.   

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E-Mini SP500 2011-2016 Review

 

 

ESY00-June-6-2016

 

In the last year or so this SP500 index has not made any real progress forwards as it would only be about 30 points down. That sure does not qualify as a bear market from my perspective, yet everybody was talking about the bear market. Does this mean its over and stocks are going to fly to the moon? I doubt that as well.  Still, we are faced with numerous peaks which eventually have to be sorted out and put into the bullish wave count or the bearish wave count.

It is foolish to think that and record high is the real top, or to even think we have a truncated 5th wave. I think there are far less truncated waves than what experts count out, as truncation can be the solution to a wave count when we are stuck. Most of the time we can make any truncated pattern fit.  This all boils down to a very high probability that the “B” wave in Primary degree has been completed or we are still fooling around with the tail end of the 5th wave. 

It may be a triangle, but where is the “trust” that usually happens following a triangle?  Stocks would have to fly much further if a triangle were still in progress.  Markets are very slow and lethargic which does not fit into a triangle pattern as well.  At this time it is still prudent to keep the wave counting options open, as things can change very fast when they want to. Sure, an upside breakout can still happen, but this close to record highs, can make for a very tempting short position.   

 

 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Review

 

GCY00-June-5-2016

 

On Friday gold soared  as the US dollar crashed.  In the last final days of May 2016, gold bottomed and has not looked back. I was expecting a rally, but it has already gone further than what I would like to see, so I will kick in a bullish impulse wave count. There is a good chance that gold may have bottomed on a “B” wave and that we are seeing the beginning of a  full “C” wave bull market. 

The potential for this rally to be in a Intermediated degree “D” wave is high on my list. Since the start looks fairly clean, we still need to figure where the third set of 1-2 waves will be. Any wave count can fall apart at any time, but we know what an impulse should behave.  The bullish side of this move should blow the doors off the $1300 price level, and I would say $1400 or more could be achievable, if we are on a “C” wave bull market in Minor degree.   To complete this “C” wave bull market we would need 5 waves up in Minute degree. 

Any of my opinions are only based on potential wave counts, and since I work from a smaller degree base, things can go wrong in a hurry. Catching a turning that will force the majority going in one direction to abandon it, and jump on the other direction,  are the moves that don’t die out so easily.  If the next move down contains “ABC” waves, then this would be a correction, and another bullish phase would be coming. It is when these “ABCs” start to invert then, we have a problem.  Any pattern that gold is rolling over and ends up going sideways for a long period of time, then this  would also be a warning that something else is in effect. 

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Russell 2000, RUT 2015-2016 Review

 

RUT-June-4-2016

 

The Russell 2000 or RUT,  has made its last major top  well over 11 months ago.  Since mid February 2016 the RUT has exploded, which may look impulsive, but we know how much any market can fool us.  There are just too many overlapping waves and when that happens, it is always best to look at it as containing a diagonal or another full blown bear market rally,with an inverted zigzag. 

This would make the 2015 peak as my potential “B” wave top, with the first set of 5 waves down in Minor degree completed, and with the wave two in Intermediated degree also potentially coming to an end. Of course, there still can be more to go, but if this wave count is true than we know what eventually has to happen.  Wave two would be still rather high but it gives lots of room for a full 5 waves down to play out. This means that wave 1 would have been about 8 months long, and it could take another 8-13 months to get to a potential, wave three bottom

This would all mean that the rest of the markets have some catching up to do, before they even get close to matching the Russell 2000.  Only time will give us a better indication what this RUT wants to do. Either way, it seems to be a good leading indicator all the same.  

 

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GDXJ Gold Stock Review

 

GDXJ-June-4-2016

 

The violent move up on Friday created one massive gap in many, if not all gold stock related asset classes. This means that gold stocks are not going to the moon just yet as the gap may get backfilled, before gold stocks can advance on another big leg up.  As much as GDXJ looks like GDX,  there are huge differences between the two. This GDXJ created a potential expanded top pattern as the HUI and GDX did not.   Still, if investors know how to feather into a position and got lucky and averaged in at $19 or so, then they would have had a 100% gain already. Of course that gain would only show on paper as you would have to sell to lock in any gains.  

Who in their right mind would sell out as this is a bull market going to the moon? Sure, this can be true but not too many bull markets start out this violently and then maintain its accent. We have to see if gold stocks add on a bigger impulse or just sputters out with another double top like pattern.  Any double top would suggest a potential diagonal 5th wave and that would mean another violent move to the downside could happen.

If a an “E” waves crash occurred, then yes, I could see another impulsive leg up. As it stands, I’m not very confident in the staying power of this bullish run.  Below this price level we have a minimum of 4 gaps that need to get closed off, sometime in the future. Sure, gaps can stay open for a long time, but eventually they have a 90% chance of getting filled. 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review.

 

 

DXY00-June-3-2016

 

 Fridays dramatic drop in the US dollar sure looks like it could be part of a correction as it drop straight down.  I used an Intermediate degree top, but reversed the count as a potential “B” wave triangle.  This would mean the trailing end of an inverted zigzag still has to play out.   There are still many variables that can be in progress,  but hopefully next week will give us a better clue on where this US dollar still wants to go to.  Any use of the Intermediate degree as part of any US dollar impulse can only fit into a bigger Cycle degree pattern 

The plunge in the US dollar sure helped gold surge higher and a few other commodities.  From the November 2015 peak, the US dollar declined in a pattern that doesn’t fit into an impulse, but can fit as a double zigzag or as an expanded flat in a 4th wave.    If  the US dollar is still to head to over 101, one more time and we end on an “E” wave top, then we could see a long decline in the US dollar, which could send gold on a very bullish run.  Sure gold goes up and down as traders panic in and out of positions, but it will take the help of the US dollar to force gold on any  longer bullish run.  Since the March 2015 top the US dollar has not shown a clear trend that it wants to take, but just a sideways price action.  

 

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Mini SP500 Intraday Wild Price Move Review

 

ESU16-June-3-2016

 

Many asset classes reacted violently this morning, which can happen at any time, but is most likely to happen close to the big jobs report issued every first Friday of the month.  The markets plunged along with many other asset classes. The US dollar also imploded, which gold reacted to in a very predictable way. 

News can be a catalyst for a turning but many times it is just a reaction and the bigger trend would just continue. The impulse I had, turned into an obvious bust, but it still could be a 4th wave correction. Only time will tell, but any triangle sure would fit into this position. 

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Gold Intraday Price Spike Review

 

GCY00-June-3-2016

 

Gold made a violent turn and soared north. This is the type of reaction we should be on the look out for every first Friday of the month. This is when employment numbers come out and stops get hit everywhere. Ok, so gold has bounced in a 4th wave like position, but it can keep right on going if it is any other type of a wave.  Gold charged right through my top trend line, which is about as far as I would like to see a 4th wave type go. 

A correction usually happens after a run like this, so we have to see if the next move also contains corrective patterns. 

I will update more tonight and a bit more Saturday as I will be busy this morning. 

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Emini SP500 Intraday Review

 

ESM16-June-2-2016

 

This E-Mini SP500 contract  has many of the same wave patterns as the DJIA has but there are also differences at times that conflicts with anything the DJIA has produced.  In this case and starting an impulse wave is riding much higher than the DJIA, which could produce extensions on the way up.

I also have two wave bottoms that must not get breached, especially the first one just below 2090.  We are about 40 full points away from reaching a new record high with my charts, and this can potentially be getting close to a Primary degree “B” wave top.  I have drawn out and posted on a page that gives us an idea what can happen after an expanded flat has formed.   After a year of going up, down and sideways, the market is only down 40 points or so.  Meanwhile, many single stocks have been decimated, and we sure can’t forget the big oil crash as it must have erased a trillion or more.

An upside breakout is the preferred path at this time, but  a diagonal may also be in progress.   

 

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Price Pattern Review

 

YMM16-June-2-2016

 

The decline into mid May has many overlapping wave structures where it is next to impossible to get a clean, or a high quality set of 5 impulse waves. This makes a potential diagonal decline or a  triangle 4th wave.  If we are too early and this still turns into a “D” wave top, then we could see another “ABC” decline, before another potential bullish phase starts.   The markets are extremely slow but I am sure on Friday things can swing violently in opposite directions. 

On the bullish side, this market sure can soar higher as the last 1-2 may have just been completed. Any potential 5th wave can go on a wild extension trip that may surprise us. My bottom two price levels must not get breached or even get close of getting hit, otherwise this wave count  would instantly be tossed out. 

If the DJIA still went wild for this month, it will not take much for this market to hit new all time highs.  Until now I have not been able to say that a potential primary degree “B” wave top is at hand, but with a new record high, it will have a better chance of surviving in the long term. 

My 4th wave bottom is a potential Minuete degree bottom as I adjusted my degree levels down one level. The entire bull market from the 2011 lows could als0 work as a “C” wave bull market.  My 4th wave is in Minuette degree, which should give us 5 waves up in Miniscule degree. The smaller any 4th waves I get, gives me a clue that we are getting closer to some type of an end. 

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Gold Intraday Plunge Review

 

GCY00-June-1-2016

 

Here we go again as gold plunges, but the plunge can fit into a perfect correction at this time. If a zigzag still has to play out, then another leg up should also develop. Of course gold could keep right on going with a very bullish run, if we just completed a wave 2 bottom.  Only time will give us more of a clue, which is a cheap cop out as gold can still go many different ways.  I can always use “WXY” waves as this will tell us clearly that we have no clue where we are.:)

We will see, as the top trend line will give us a type of a price ceiling, if gold is in a bigger bearish move than the majority think we are in.    

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Swiss Franc 2000-2016 Review

 

S6Y00-June-1-2016

 

In late 2000 this Swiss Franc started with a 3 wave pattern which sets the tone for the entire bullish phase we see here. Many waves overlapping each other,  with what looks like a running zigzag, followed by a wild vertical blow off which matches the gold peak as well.  The commercial traders positions do not give us any helpful clues even though they are net long.  From what has just completed seems like a 3 wave rally, I take that as a potential false rally and more downside should still be in the cards. 

This is one of the slowest moving currencies, but if I am right a final vertical lift (5 waves) can still happen in the future.  This bodes well for gold as gold should rally along with this Swiss Franc. When the Swiss frank bottom near the 2000 time period, we know the US dollar was also getting ready to shift downward.  This all synchronized well with gold as its big bullish phase also started near the 2000 lows.  

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WTI Crude Oil Intraday Review

 

CLN16-June-1-2016

 

Crude oil has made a move down and I started this down move as an impulse. There is very little room to move away from a potential impulse pattern, so this wave count may not take too long to get busted. When it does get busted, it will help to eliminate a wave count and hopefully start to confirm a potential correction is taking place.  Any bigger correction will not hold at the bottom trend line, as oil may crash through that like a hot knife cuts through butter.

Gold has also made a significant move to the downside, but that may also be a corrective move. The gold/oil ratio is about 24.61:1 which is still pretty cheap when compared to gold. This ratio may increase if oil declines in the next week or so.  If this correction continues, we will hear all sorts of bearish news come from the mainstream media. When the decline looks choppy with deep plunges then chances are good a correction has taken place and the next leg up would start.

Of course that scenario is in a perfect world, which has been impossible to find. 

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Bull Market Review

 

ESM16-June-1-2016

 

Another new month has started and we are heading into a new moon this weekend.  So far the patterns still suggest a correction is happening, which means that the markets or SP500 can still breakout to new record highs.  Even though the DJIA and the SP500 can travel the same way, they still have chart differences that can give them two different wave counts.  

Chances are good that a small expanded pattern has happened, which means another push to the upside should also happen as expanded patterns can be very bullish. A small degree expanded pattern can get us a small degree 5th wave up, so we don’t want to think that this market is going to the moon. 

Any price level above 2110 will be plenty to confirm many of the past wave patterns, with the potential for my “B” wave in Primary degree to find another parking spot.  Sure, we want lifetime free parking for my “B” wave, but we know that, that can be wishful thinking.  Many of the Elliott Wave analysts are after a “B” wave top, but the difference is the degree that we think we are in.  All EW technicians that think they are in some SC or GSC degree world must get or the market must provide them with a run of 5 waves down in Primary degree.

These 5 waves down in Primary degree is the only pattern that they must get to even start to confirm that they are in a SC or higher degree position.   The difference with my wave counts is that I am looking for 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, finishing at a potential 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree.

Since the 2007 top, and down to early 2009 to a potential 2016 top and then to the next major bottom, can be a single expanded flat. As I have repeated it many times, that once expanded flats are played out, they can be extremely bullish with the development of the 5th wave. This is all drawn out on a static page which will give readers an idea of some of the language I will be using.

The problem with SC degree counting, is that it breeds complacent wave counting.  Once they find out that they have 5 waves and only DOW 6000, they may just think they are in a wave 1 position in Primary degree. If this turns out that way, then they will be making the same major mistake as they did in March of 2009. Screaming DOW 1000 while DOW 6000 has just been hit,  will tell us that SC and GSC degree wave counting will fail again. 

You will be left holding the bag as the new bull market soars and keeps right on going. 

 

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Gold Intraday Decline And Rally Review.

 

GCY00-May-31-2016

 

Gold has finally started a small run up, but we have no real clue how long that will last for. Right now we can see a potential “ABC” decline that has happened, and if that is true, then yes gold could soar above $1300 once again.  That is the bullish point of view, but the US dollar has to cooperate with us in order for gold to soar again.  We know gold can fly when it wants to, as a 5 month run and $250 is not that shabby by any standards.  Gold is starting out rather weak, so be fully prepared in case this run dies out and starts to crash again. 

 

Not much to comment on today, as we have to see if this bullish move starts to show us some erratic and unstable wave structures. 

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US Dollar Index Weekly Chart Review:

 

DXY00-May-31-2016

 

We have to go back to early 2008 to make any sense of this US dollar bull market.  In the big scope of things the US dollar could be in a 4th wave rally, but more like a diagonal pattern due to that long skinny bull market from 2014 to the 2015 peak.   Since the 2015 top, the US dollar has been bobbing around like it was in a triangle and has since crashed from late 2015  to early May. The May 2nd bottom turn right on the 92 price level, and leveling with a real nice spike as it reversed. Within the last year, the US dollar has now made three major bottoms ending with spikes, and several smaller ones also ending in spikes.  This can be a very bullish signal and cannot be ignored. 92 will be a future price level where the battle for a downside breakout will occur.   

Now we are faced with a pattern that can still head north, and completely retrace all of the 2015 patterns. If this is the case, then we may be getting close to a wave 1 in Minute degree and this US dollar bullish phase would still have a long way to go, or it may seem that way.  The US dollar index commercial traders, have not been excited about anything as their bearish bets still out number bullish bets by a ratio of 2:1.  

There could be a big chance that once this US dollar plays out its bullish run, then the US dollar could be setting up for a major 5 wave pattern decline. If this scenario were to happen,  then gold would respond with a very impressive bullish phase as well.  The 2011 bottom in the USD, matched the gold stock top before they proceeded to implode. The opposite can also happen as gold soared and the USD tumbled.  At the intraday level, it is much harder to see any stock mania in action, but on bigger moves it stands out very well.

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review

 

YMM16-May-31-2016

 

Finally, another correction seems to be in progress and it still may have a bit to go before the DJIA will crank up again.  We could be completing an expanded pattern, but a tiny 4th wave should still develop. That’s in a perfect world, but we know that, that is hardly ever the case.  We have 4 days until we hit a new moon on Saturday, June 4th, which can be very bearish for stocks next week.  This Mini DJIA bottomed one day just before the full moon date, and then rallied for 10 calendar days. We still have 3 trading days left so anything is still possible.  Sometimes moon dates do nothing but other times they do serve as extremely good reversal time periods. 

The worst case scenario we could have just finished a “D” wave top and an “E” wave leg down is still ahead of us. Either way, since that April 2016 peak, we still have many overlapping waves that have not been completely retraced, which I think still needs to happen.  I moved the degrees up where we can be in a Minute degree 5th wave, with the last first wave still to come. On any final leg up we could get the 5th wave to extend dramatically or just be another diagonal move.

We are so close that many of these markets can still break new record highs, and until that happens, we cannot sort out the mess of waves we have had so far from the May 2015 top.  Many times what others take as the real peaks are actually expanded peaks, which would be still part of the bullish phase correction and not part of any 5 wave decline just yet.

I have posted a page that talks about the idealized pattern I would need to confirm a potential single expanded flat for a 4th wave Cycle degree correction.  This would have to be a 3-3-5 wave count with the 5 waves down being in Intermediate degree, and not Primary degree.  The two 5 wave declines are worlds apart, as the SC and GSC degree crowd “must” get 5 waves down in Primary degree.   Short term I’m a bit bearish, but this should turn for at least one more leg up.  

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Gold Cash Chart, Intraday Crash Review.

 

GCY00-May-28-2016

 

Gold pushed a bit lower on Friday.  At the beginning of May 2016 gold started its decline, which only took a few weeks before the basic impulse was destroyed, or started to fall apart.  Any potential diagonal decline would eventually have to fit into a Minor degree zigzag. (Three waves in Minute degree)  This may be a potential 4th wave in Minuette degree that could happen. It can be fast or slow, as gold always has the explosive power locked up inside.

Not until gold breaks far away or crashes through my bottom trend line will I change the location of this trend line. I throw more value into a trend line at a 45 degree angle, than any other trend line.  If gold declines and oil remains high, then this makes oil more expensive as the gold/oil ratio would compress. 

Gold has cleared many of those nasty inverted patterns, which I have talked about for some time. Unless we missed something the gold bull market could have been a fake and therefore be completely retraced.  This would only be a bit more than a $160 down move in gold.  Gold has no problem in moving $200-$250 at a crack, which it only took 5 months to do. Now gold has declined about $90 which has only taken about a month.  For gold to travel $200 in two months would be like taking candy from a baby. 

 

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WTI Crude Oil, 1980-2016 Cash Chart Review: No “WXY” Waves!

 

CLY00-May-28-2016

 

It is very important to constantly review the entire crude oil pattern from the last known Cycle degree peak. Even though I tried many different peaks, I ended back using the 1980 peak as my Cycle degree wave three locations.  This is also where my entire wave count starts to separate and turn into a triangle. Many have used “WXY” waves for the 1990’s bear market, which I thing was completely false as the “WXY” waves buried or hid the potential start of a triangle. 

I have never used “WXY” waves and never will as they made no sense when I tried them.  With “WXY” waves, this made the 1998 low as the 4th wave in Cycle degree, followed by the obvious 5 waves up in Primary degree.  I am describing the popular wave count,  but I see 5 waves up in Primary degree as a forced wave count. I think it is a big mistake to squeeze a postage sized pattern into a Primary degree correction, when Intermediate degree corrections have been far bigger and have taken much longer.  

If an Intermediate degree correction takes a bit less than 8 years to play out, so why should a Primary degree correction take a bit longer than a year. (2006) This makes no sense as we would throw out all regards of time and physical size. It took me some time before I got the confidence to change the 1998-2008 bull market, to part of a bigger triangle. (C wave bull market in Intermediate degree).

This gives us a potential (D) wave bottom, for 2016 and now we have to track another potential inverted zigzag in Minor degree.  Anything can still happen, as an ending diagonal for instance, but that we have to wait and see if it develops.   We are still far away from a potential “A” wave peak in Minor degree, so until the “B” wave arrives, I will be scratching my head with every move this oil market will make.  For any future potential “B” wave correction, (Minor degree) we can take virtually any variation of an “ABC” that the oil market can throw at us so, but the last type of pattern I would expect would be another zigzag.  It is rare if not impossible for a zigzag to correct a zigzag.  

At this time I am expecting an oil correction, which may be a 4th wave type in Minute degree. Many others are also expecting a correction as bearish fundamental stories creep back into the media spotlight. 

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Mini SP500 2009-2016 Review

 

ESM16-May-28-2016

 

I believe that we can have the 2009 bottom as a potential “A” wave in Primary degree. If we are to stay in sequence, then the 2009-2016 rally could be part of a triangle or an expanded flat in which we still have some potential Minor degree move to go. Since about May 2015 we have produced multiple tops, which many can call the real peak.

In reality, this is hardly ever the case, as many times an expanded pattern is involved.  The bad part about multiple tops is that it can take a long time to figure out which peak belongs to the bullish correction or which peak is already on the bearish side. At this time there still is a very good chance that this SP500 can still create a new record high, as we may cross in a three wave pattern.  Crossing to a new high with a three wave pattern, or a five wave pattern makes a huge difference in what location we may be close at. 

As long as I am hunting for a potential “B” wave top in Primary degree, then there is an extremely good chance that a five wave bear market will ensue. I have drawn up an idealized pattern or patterns, already and they will be posted as a permanent page.  What my biggest degree is in, makes a huge difference in all of this, as price forecasts will tumble and get destroyed if we think in bigger degrees than what we actually are. 

Besides counting in Cycle degree always puts you “in front” of the line not behind, any SC or GSC degree wave count. Before any SC or GSC degree forecast will ever work, “ALL” 5 Cycle degree positions must be found and accounted for.  It has been my goal with this web site to track the 5 Cycle degree patterns, which at this point I know of no other wave counter that is doing this.

It will be critical to see if a new high is created or if it still falls short of doing so. We have the month end coming up, with a potential new moon in the firts part of June, so we can expect some wild moves.  

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Gold Intraday Crash Review

 

GCY00-May-27-2016

 

In the past month or so gold has pretty well done what I expected it to do, but where do we go from here?  Gold has not cleared the $1190 price level but has come very close to the $1210 price level.  This makes the entire  phase that started back in February 2016 a big fat corrective pattern at this point. A triangle usually means a trust up and away, but we must keep an eye open as to what type of rally pattern we are going to get. 

If gold does not perform as it should for this specific wave count, then other options must be considered.  If we get another clear inverted rally, but not break to record highs, then we could be at the crossroads of an “A” wave in Minor degree. I would be happy if any “A” wave formed this high as that would mean that gold will not go that low, even though the trailing “C” wave could be the longest.  That trailing “C” wave,  would eventually take gold below the $1050 price level again.  

Markets are going to be slow, as many head out early for the long weekend. Of course, Janet Yellen will mix things up as well, before the day is done. 

 

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WTI Crude Oil Intraday Impending Correction Review

 

 

CLN16-May-27-2016

 

What I have counted out in oil as a potential wave three top in Minute degree may not work,  as there could be the chance for an expanded pattern to be in progress.  This would not make the correction as deep as it should but crude oil could stop short and add on another bullish type “C” wave. I’m sure we will still hear horror inventory problems, but those numbers can move very quickly as the terrorists blow up as much oil production as they can. 

Nigeria’s oil production has been hurt, just as our Canadian oil sands production has been dramatically curtailed due to the forest threats. We have to remember that oil came from an extreme gold/oil ratio, (45:1) that I have never seen before, so that alone can keep oil in a bull market for several years.

Today the gold/oil ratio was closer to 24.56:1 which is a dramatic difference from the end of 2015.  Yes, we could see an interim correction when the gold/oil ratio starts getting below 20:1 or so.  After any big correction the gold/oil ratio should change again, as oil would be cheaper when compared to gold. Leveraged assets like oil and gold do make massive dramatic swings in very short time frames, so many wave counts get busted all the time.  

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Chart Review: Is It Just A Correction?

 

YMM16-May-27-2016

 

Markets are going to be very dull and boring before the weekend, but I am sure some late news will stir things up. Right now the DJIA can go down just as well as it can go up. It can go up if we are in an impulse and it can go down if we just finished a “D” wave rally. I don’t like it when we are  in a potential position when it is unclear, which way the markets can go in the short term.  

The bearish phase that started around April 20th, has many overlapping waves in it, which can work as a 4th wave type triangle. If that is the case, then the markets still have one more leg up to play out. 

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US Dollar Intraday Bull Market Review

 

DXY00-May-27-2016

 

The US dollar has been on a rip snorting bullish run. Is this run coming to an end soon or will it break higher one more time.  Gold has also responded to the US dollar bull market and has also been dropping like a rock.  Commercial positions are still net short by a ratio of about 2:1 but that is not skewed enough to help us much at this time.  The US dollar can head for another leg up (5th wave) but there is still a high probability that the US dollar is just on a “C” wave bullish run.

This would mean that the US dollar could implode and break that 92 price barrier one more time.  That scenario sure would send gold soaring, but another leg up with the US dollar may still be in progress. As I type the US dollar is very close to the top again so it is up to Janet Yellen to throw a monkey wrench into the market’s wheels.  The changing of the rates is only a concern to the masses as they live and die on fundamental news.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, any news is just another bump in the charts with news being a lagging indicator, and not a leading indicator. If any big correction shows that the US dollar has created an “ABC” pattern, (With the “C” always facing down), then for sure the US dollar will soar again. 

 

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Palladium Daily Chart Review

 

PAY00-May-26-2016

 

The palladium wave count has a challenging pattern at the top. Since the 2016 bottom palladium has made what looks like a perfect impulse, but if that is the case a correction would have been already completed, and the next leg up should commence shortly.  This is also a great setup for a wave 3-4 to still develop which leaves palladium wide open for another big zigzag. If  another run up, is to happen, then we would look for choppy waves telling us that a “C” wave bull market is still going to play out.

Much depends on what type of pattern a palladium run will make, in the next few weeks or so.    

 

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