WTI Crude Oil Intraday Review

 

CLN16-June-14-2016

 

Crude oil has declined somewhat, but still not low enough where the inverted patterns have been completely retraced.  That’s the short term scenario, as there is no guarantee that crude oil will hold at the $47 price level.

This expanded pattern can turn into a diagonal wave just as well, which means a much longer protected bearish phase could be in progress. If crude oil just finished a wave 1-2 heading down, then there is much more downside to go. 

The bullish mood has been great and this is when corrections usually take place. Now we have to wait and see if the bears start coming out of the woodwork, and bearish fundamental news becomes more dominate.  If and when that happens, nobody will know the exact price crude oil will stop at.  The $44 price level would be another target to keep a sharp eye on.

What I will be looking for, is a potential correction taking place starting with the June 8th peak, as the real top. 

 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Review

 

DXY00-June-14-2016

 

The US dollar seems to have turned another corner a little less than a week ago and is now heading back up. At the end of May, we may have been at the top of a potentially  zigzag “A” wave, and what we are now in, is the trailing “C” wave.  Of course, this can all fall apart, but the first thing to help us confirm this, is that the US dollar has to go up past the 96 price level. 

I started the count, so there would be room for an extension, but it still may take until the end of the month for the US dollar to clear the 96 price level.  The US dollar looks bullish and if there is anything to this potential wave count, then there is more upside to go. 

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DJIA 2008-2016 Wave Count Review.

 

DJY00-June-13-2016

 

This is the cash chart for the DJIA and I try and review back as far as I have to, to look for alternate wave counts. In this case my 2007 peak is still a hold but from there on all hell breaks loose as we crash into the 2008-2009 bottom. Of course, nobody knew what the real bottom would be  as the majority of wave counters were at a wave 1 bottom in Primary degree.

 This made no sense, but the lack of other ideas, I also looked for wave 2 in Primary degree. Two or three key things were present in late 2008-March 2009, which basically is a clear give away, and that is insider buying. 

The fact that everybody was still bearish was another reason. Warren Buffett also screamed “buy stocks”  in late 2008. 

The bottom of 2009 also included an ending diagonal, which happens at the tips of “C” waves. 

It was not until 2013 I started to switch and focus on all my Cycle degree sequences as without them,  any higher degree wave count has no base to count from, until all 5 waves in Cycle degree are found.  If we accept the possibility that those first waves up is just a small degree zigzag. This is where my “A” wave in intermediate degree ended and a wild expanded “B” wave with a running flat, for the 2011 bottom.

From the 2011 bottom the waves fell into disarray with many waves over lapping, and just plainly not acting to their script.  

Since this 2011 bottom is the start of a “C” wave, then expect wild 5 wave sequences in Minor degree.  In late 2014 we had a crash bottom, which could be part of the triangle I see. Aren’t we supposed to get a big thrust after a triangle 4th wave correction? Yes, but the book only gives us guidelines, which does not help if we are in a big bearish rally.

The short version is that a spike past the 18,500 price level would do it, and it would help create another spot for the “B” wave in Primary degree. 

At present markets are bearish looking, which the VIX reflects very well. The VIX touched 21 today, but a correction is due.  

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VIX Intraday Review: Extreme Fear Already?

 

VIX-June-13-2016

 

For the little amount that stocks have declined, the VIX shows an over zealous response to this. Just imagine if we were declining down a big Primary degree “C” wave,  and what would happen to this VIX chart?  The VIX only hit about 50 even at the worst fears of the stock market bottom. 2008-2009.   Something has to give with this  VIX  spike, because fear like this cannot be maintained. At minimum we would need a correction soon, but if this entire move I have labeled, is an inverted move, then this VIX is open to crash followed by new record lows. 

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Decline Review

 

ESM16-June-13-2016

 

This Mini-SP500 June contract is getting to an end and I will be switching to to the September contract soon. This decline sure looks like an impulse decline, but this decline can be part of an expanded pattern and a “B” wave base may be forming. 

I cannot put any potential Primary degree “B” wave top up at this point,  as I think when a market is going to blow a big top, I would like to see more dramatic of an upward spike. Right now we are  bobbling around at extreme highs, with many peaks since 2015.

I don’t follow the idea that truncated moves are so very popular, but if any diagonal waves are involved, then it may seem like they are truncated waves.  We never know, but this market refuses to die and could be bullish for a long time yet. If the bullish ride is over then we want to see some serious impulse waves with no real bottom to rely on.

Looking at some of the commercial positions regarding the major indices, there are no massive short positions, but some are  even a bit net long. Commercial trader’s positions are not very helpful, until they are in an extreme condition.

With just this recent decline the VIX  has exploded with another leg up touching the $19.55 price level.

With the VIX spike this also created two big gaps that will get closed, the only question is when they will get closed.  

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Gold Daily Chart 2011-2016 Review: The Majority Are Bullish On Gold.

 

This recent survey I read about Wall Street and Main Street, being bullish on gold was very interesting.  It shows that Wall Street experts are bullish on gold by 62%, while the folks on Main Street are 74% bullish. By no means is this an extreme bullish consensus, but for gold already in a 6 month bullish phase, these readings would be extreme.

If we look at it from a contrarian perspective, we have to ask ourselves, “who is left to get in”,?  Who are those smart experts or mainstream people that can push these sentiment numbers much higher? George Soros is bullish on gold, but he does not count, as he can stay  bullish on gold and not blink an eye, while Main Street goes broke waiting for a massive bullish cycle.   

When this much bullish attention is already present in gold, then the upside could be very restricted.  I am sure you may have read that this bullish mood is good for gold, and the fundamentals all point to higher gold prices.  The trouble with fundamentals is that they are all lagging indicators. They are useless to forecast the future price  of gold.  

Everybody was bullish on gold in mid 2011 and look what happened after, as gold plunged into a bear market.  A bear market that has traveled much more than their perfect 20% decline. It even touched close to being a 45% decline, so they all declared the gold bull market dead.   

Meanwhile, all of the wave analysts were counting a correction, after which gold would carry on to new world highs. We counted every pattern under the sun and yet every rally until now, has never lasted. Bearish rallies always get completely retraced, and the only question is, “Has this gold rally been a fake”? 

 

GCY00-June-12-2016

 

There is no way I can create a good set of big parallel lines, but if we connect two big peaks, we now have a line in the sand to work with.  For gold to be in a much bigger bullish phase, then it has to blow the lid off this top trend line and soar.  Since the 2013 bottom the gold pattern has dramatically changed and turned into one crazy overlapping decline.  From my Cycle degree perspective, this choppy pattern is a good sign as they are diagonal patterns. It is pretty hard to push them into impulse wave patterns and we should never try if we see them.  For this entire gold bearish phase, which may end up being a Primary degree 4th wave correction, there were virtually no great impulse waves that we can count out.

Right now we have a potential $1200 gold base, but if gold is still in its bearish funk, then this $1200 base will not hold. $1050 will not hold as well, but a few points below those 2015 lows, will surely confirm that gold’s recent rally has all been a fake.  We can argue about the fundamentals all the time, but good wave counts and market sentiment will always tell us to do the opposite thing.  In hindsight (2011), we can now see that being bullish with the herd, was exactly the wrong thing to do. Does that stop anyone from doing it again? Not on your life, as the majority will buy high and then sell out low in disgust. This will happen over and over again, and as long as there are humans with money, it will keep happening.

If that $1300 peak ended with an ending diagonal, then this would also make a strong case for the bearish side. On a small scale gold is pointing up, but stocks are pointing down a bit.  Many may have charged into gold as a safe-haven, but if there are too many bulls then this will not work in the long run as well. The real boost in gold prices would be, if  the US dollar starting a long drawn out decline. This has not happened yet as the US dollar still wants to go up!

Gold could go into a real funk for the rest of the year or into the fall, but I sure will turn bullish once this potential scenario plays out.

 

 

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Silver Intraday Bull Market Review: Another Bull Trap?

 

SIY00-June-11-2016

 

Silver always like to walk to a different drummer than gold as gold can act far more energetic than silver will. This silver run is not a good looking impulse at all and I would be forcing a wave count that is not there if I don’t look at alternate patterns. At silver’s June 1st start, the impulse wave pattern is non existent, and about 3 days ago, the silver pattern started to bunch up. I can get this peak into an ending diagonal very easily, which means that this silver run may have seen its best days this June. 

I have no choice but to be very bearish on silver until such a time we can see a meaningful correction forming.  I can spew out all sorts of support price levels, but calling for support prices is only telling us that they think we are in a huge bull market with only a correction to worry about.  This is when the markets can surprise everybody by going much deeper than we visualize in the short term.  Silver may wobble or find temporary support at bull market lows, but if this all was a fake then no support will work very long.  

The next few weeks will tell us more, because if another leg up is going to happen, then any correction cannot go that deep. 

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Canadian Dollar Intraday Correction Review

 

D6Y00-June-10-2016

 

Since early 2016 our Canadian dollar has started to soar. This is a good thing as it closely matched the oil and gold rally as well.  The CAD also looks like it wants to soar with the next sequence all set to go.  Not so fast, as this correction may still need to fully play out. Our present little rally is too choppy to fit into a clean impulse wave, as we could be just at the tip of small degree “B” wave top, and we would still need the trailing “C” wave, to complete.  

I have labeled this as being part of an inverted move, as many of these moves start out the same way as an impulse does, but then they completely fall apart after that. In other words, an “ABC” rally  can be the exact same move as the start of a 1-2-3 wave pattern.  If we still get a move down to newer lows, then this would be a great setup for the correction to complete, and I would have to turn very bullish on the CAD again. 

I started this count out as an inverted move, but we would have enough time to see if a wave three top forms, or if it was a “C” wave bull market. With both patterns we could end up with another spike to the vertical side.  One pattern will be very choppy and the other could be a smooth impulse pattern, and until that “C” wave or wave three fully shows itself, the wave count doesn’t need to be changed. 

The CAD had about a 12 cent move to the upside, so after any correction, we could get another 12 cent move, which could bring us closer to the 85 cent price level.  When this happens then it will be time to review the entire move to see which one wins! 

Right now I am bearish on our CAD, but that would definitely change once a correction has shown itself.   

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HUI, Gold Stock Index Review: Bull Trap In Gold Stocks?

 

HUI-June-11-2016

 

This HUI gold stock index has soared in the first week of June, which helps to confirm that the previous pattern was a 3 wave correction. The trouble with being very bullish anymore is because this HUI move was very straight up, and therefore can’t be trusted.  I have not heard any obvious gold stock insider selling so at this time my bearish scenario is a lone wolf forecast.  The June rally contains a 3 wave pattern at this time, so this can fit well into a diagonal type 5th wave.  The HUI also tapped the 250 price level on Friday, and then immediately backed off a bit. 

The arrows show where all the gaps are, and I am sure all of them will get closed off in due time.  If this year’s move has all been just a fake, then this sure would surprise all the contrarian gold stock holders. If no real gold stock insider selling news is published, then there is no certain way of knowing if a strong top has just happened. This is where pattern recognition is a very important thing, as the price will just not do it.  I sure am not going to spew out a bunch of garbage, where the HUI has to hold at a certain price level to remain bullish. 

Hopefully it will not take too long to start to show the gold stocks true colors, as I think this run has gone on long enough. Nothing is worse, then selling out too early in a bull market, but a potential fake bull market, would be an entirely different matter.  

 

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Gold Intraday Chart Review: Bull Market Or Bull Trap?

 

GCY00-June-10-2016-2

 

At the end of the week I look through the charts and see if I can find another alternate wave count. EWP is all about “what if” scenarios, and to keep it real, there are always 5 probabilities of the simple pattern types we can get.   This is all specific to the degree and for gold above, I used a wave 4 peak in Minor degree. (First Part of May 2016). What if this great run in gold has just been another good fake? If this run was a fake then it will not take long for the type of decline to start showing up. 

Either way I was suspicious of a gold correction already, with gold possibly hitting its peak on Friday.  I may be wrong but, this is a very compelling pattern not to ignore.  The trend is very steep with a spike showing up very well on the daily charts.  That last little 5th wave I had turned into a diagonal or even an ending diagonal. This would be a Micro degree 5th wave which is not labeled. 

Any chance at $1450 this time around is not workable anymore, as this could be a pretty good bull trap. The $1300 price would also be left in the dust.

In a bull trap, all the traders have “sell” stops below all present prices, so once this starts, it could go very quickly.  Any wave counter can get fooled with this pattern, but constant reviewing helps us to find alternate wave counts. If this becomes true and the contrarians have not sold out, then they are going to take a big beating as gold stocks should also nose dive. 

I have to be bearish with what I see, but at the same time we have to try and watch for an early “ABC” bear trap. 

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E-Mini S&P Midcap Intraday Bullish Phase Review

 

EWY00-June-10-2016

 

This market just seems to want to push higher as it is getting closer to a record new high every few weeks or so.  Friday saw an excellent drop later in the day, but we can see it ended with a very steep decline.  This sure has the potential to only be a correction and if this is true, we should see yet another leg up develop, in the next week or so. 

I would be chasing an inverted 3 wave bull market as a zigzag, and we would still have two thirds of the move left to play out.  This should not take too long to confirm as there is little room to wiggle around in. We have to look for a correction, but a straight down move can work as a correction at any time.   

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E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Bullish Phase Review

 

NQM16-June-10-2016

 

Many times the Nasdaq seems to be walking to a different drummer.  When I started to look at it again, I could find a very bullish wave count. The good thing about it, is that it will not take too long for it to fail. Chances are good that a 4th wave has ended in Mid February 2016, and now we are faced with a potential trailing “C” wave impulse. This  “C” wave bull market may be closer to a true impulse wave, than anything we may have seen in the past. There still may be some back and forth movement if this small “ABC” has not played out, but another leg up could happen. I have the Minute degree correction containing an expanded top, which would have to be completely retraced. 

With so many people being bearish on stocks, it would not surprise me if the Nasdaq soared higher. This double top looking pattern can fool us as I have seen this before, and many times the markets soared higher.  This double top is littered with “Buy” orders, as stop loss orders would kick in, and  at the same time, any upside breakout jumpers get on board! 

 

vix-june-10-2016

 

This is a plain chart of the VIX fear index, and we can see that the VIX has soared some more on Friday. This reflects the bearish mood present in the markets. The spike in the VIX is so tall that it opened a huge gap at the $14.60 price level. The VIX peaked out a bit over $17, and I think it is setting itself up for a correction, A downward move by the VIX, means an upward move in stocks.  This has the potential to be a diagonal 4th wave top, so if it crashed then the VIX could go below $12.50 again.

Since that mid April bottom the VIX has been on a choppy ride with not too many clean impulse waves, except maybe this recent move. So this big sideways movement has taken well over 13 months, and eventually it would have to fall below that April 20th price level.  The full moon is coming up in a week as the full moons can be very bullish for stocks. 

 

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US Dollar Intraday Bullish Price Action Update

 

DXY00-June-10-2016

 

I think this US dollar rally has gone on long enough if we are in a 4th wave rally. We can handle a little more as another small degree 5th wave still needs to play out.  If we don’t get a good resumption of the downward trend, then the next decline could be another “ABC” correction, creating a base to jump from.  Next week will prove interesting as this US dollar bullish move should not to take that long to start confirming one direction or the other.  

I pushed my degree level up another notch and now show a Minute degree as a my “B” wave top.  If I move that “B” wave top back down to the May 26th peak, then instantly we would have an expanded pattern.  If this USD refuses to die again, then I may be forced to use the expanded wave count for awhile.  Elliott Wave has always been the process of elimination for how I count, and many times you have to use the very wave count you like the most to set it up to fail.  

I don’t like to post multiple different wave counts on one chart, but rather just create a new one for the next posting.  I will rarely give you an extreme detailed wave count as I do that with “finger” wave counting at the intraday level.  What is the sense of meticulously counting out all the little waves if we miss a big bull market, besides how do we find our mistakes? 

A little more bullish action and then the US dollar has to start acting to my script again, otherwise these so called actors are going to get fired! 

 

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Mini DJIA Intraday Review

 

YMM16-June-10-2016

 

There is always a  chance that this market decline is just another fake. We will only know how high the next spike will go,  before another reversal hits the markets. At this time I can only get this June pattern into an ending diagonal as a 4th wave has already dipped into the first wave.  It would be crazy if we were at another potential first wave, and stocks roared up again. This may continue until the US elections, declare a new president, and the markets anticipate that he or she,  will be one of worst presidents they have voted in.  With the markets declining for the first 4 years of the new presidency. This is just a wild scenario and may never happen, but we will find out in early 2017 after February sometime.  

 

 

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Gold Intraday Bullish Review

 

GCY00-June-10-2016

 

This pattern looks very bullish for gold, but when we are thinking it’s going to the moon, then chances are good that the opposite will happen.  This morning’s small degree rally,  came from a diagonal wave base and now has gone vertical. This is usually when a correction is due, or we hope it will only be a correction.  I think gold would be littered with many inverted patterns on a much bigger scale, if this were the case.   

If we are due for a Minuette degree wave 4 correction, then $1265-$1260 could work as a corrective bottom. GDX and the HUI have been rather lethargic when compared to gold’s dynamic moves, which is normal as gold stocks can behave dramatically different than gold itself.   

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WTI, Crude Oil Intraday Update

 

CLN16-June-10-2016

 

The entire bullish phase for WTI crude oil sure has the look and feel of a diagonal run as it is very difficult to count good impulse waves in a row.  Oil has topped out just a bit above $51.60, before it started to correct.  The trip down is looking like an impulse, but it would be perfectly normal if we were in a small degree “C” wave decline.

This “C” wave decline could be part of an expanded pattern, which means that once oil bottoms, it will turn and head north one more time. Since mid May, oil has switched to a pattern where it overlaps the previous peaks. A “B” wave triangle can be the same thing as an ending diagonal, depending on where we count from.  In this case I would have to target the $47 price level as a potential 4th wave bottom, as that would be a complete retracement of all the inverted patterns we see.

Since there may be a triangle in the “B” wave, then this would also be telling us that one more leg up is coming, and that this leg would end followed by an even bigger and longer correction. This would be a potential wave 3-4 correction in Minute degree.

They just figured out that commodities have  entered a bull market , which goes to show how lagging fundamental news really is. Just wait until we get to a  much bigger correction, when all this bullish news will turn to bearish news. Doubt of the bull market would return, as they try to second guess how low oil will still go. Of course, when the bearish news is all on the front page or topping the internet headlines, then this oil market will eventually reverse and soar like an eagle once again. 

Using the cash charts, we have a present ratio of about 25.25:1 which is still very cheap for oil when using gold as money.  This ratio should expand if the crude oil correction pans out the way I anticipate it to. 

 

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VIX Intraday Review.

 

VIX-June-9-2016

 

We haven’t looked at the VIX for sometime. For all of May and a few days in June we had a very sideways and choppy pattern, to say the least. There is nothing smooth or easy when we look at the VIX patterns as leverage and fear make for a deadly combination. A few days ago and this VIX hit a bottom and shot up, which could be an impulse that has much further to go.

When the waves are this choppy then chances are good they are part of a correction, which means that the VIX can break out over that $17.60 price level.  When fear strikes the markets, then this VIX responds by going up as it seems to have started already.  This could be an expanding type correction as well, in which this VIX will still crash to newer lows.  If another newer low is achieved, then I would turn bearish on stocks as well. 

 

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US Dollar Intraday Update

 

DXY00-June-9-2016

 

The US dollar has shot up about the same time as gold also exploded upward. The US dollar decline is critical in keeping the gold bull market going. If the US dollar turned and soared then this would give trouble to the gold market. Hopefully this will not happen just yet, as the US dollar needs to return to its bearish phase soon.   I am trying an “ABC” wave count as a potential last diagonal 5th wave. If I’m correct, we still should see a new low for the US dollar, after which the US dollar bears will be screaming to “Buy Gold” 

When the crowd is thinking the same bearish sentiments (BS)  and big names tell us to dump the US dollar and get into gold then the opposite will happen.  At this time the commercials are still net short the US dollar, but they can switch to a net long position very quickly.  

 

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Gold Intraday And Daily Chart Review: Going To The Moon!

 

GCY00-June-9-2016

 

Gold is where the real action is,  as it sure seems to be displaying a great impulse run. We need impulse waves as they point in the direction of the new trend, and impulse waves are the only patterns that can give us distance. When inverted waves  start forming, you can bet it will not take long for the impulse wave to stop forming.  So far none of these inverted patterns are showing up in any high degree, so this bullish phase may have some more life left in it yet. 

All this talk about an impulse wave can really get the crowd all worked up as bullish news will help to reinforce the trend.  One thing we have to know or understand is “Where or What position”, did  the impulse to start from.  Any “C” wave bull market can have a perfect forming impulse, which is what traps the majority when this “C” wave plays out.  If gold is roaring up to a “D” wave peak and we finally get there, the bullish herd will have no compelling reason to sell and get out, as they will be brainwashed thinking gold is still going to the “moon”.

In the end staying long at the peak of any Intermediate degree “D” wave, is just asking for trouble as the markets will surely die, retracing virtually the entire bull market.  If this bullish phase gets close to $1450 then a retracement  below $1050 would happen. 

Since we are close to the $1270 price level, any move above $1300 is an easy call. 

 

GCY00-2-June-9-2016

 

I thought I would add the daily chart with a quick wave count of the Minor degree positions. Maybe we should call it the George Soros bull market, as the stories go, he is bullish on gold.   We still need more evidence that this bull market can keep going, and gold breaking out over $1300 would get my vote.

Gold moved about $230 from the bottom to my “A” wave peak. The correction landed at about $1210 before gold charged up, with this present rally.  If we add $230 points to the “B” wave bottom, then we get about $1440 as a potential “C” wave top.  Anything above $1400 would be getting close to a major trend line drawn from the 2011 peak in gold.  If the gold bull market gets old and stale with gold stock insiders cashing in, then this gold party will eventually get shut down. The entire time gold investors will not suspect that gold may be in a false “D” wave unless they are reading this blog. 

Since any “D” wave can act just like a wave 1, the gold bulls will be in a major trap without knowing it. Hopefully the contrarians will “Tweet” out some indicators when the time comes.  There is no way of knowing for sure that any ending will happen, especially if gold stock insider selling news is non existing.  I rely on pattern not any price level that the public can be obsessed with, as any price can be broken at any time, but the pattern can hold for a very long time.  Gold is close to a 5 year bear market and we may still have another bottom to deal with, but then I would expect an even bigger bull market after that.  

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Mini SP500 Intraday Review

 

 

ESM16-June-9-2016

 

Stocks have backed off a bit this morning, after what looks like the end of a 5th wave. This top we see, could also be an expanded pattern which could produce a sharp decline before stocks crank up again. I’m looking for a potential 3 wave pattern pushing to new record highs, as either a diagonal 5th wave or the last part of an “E” wave.  Any expanded pattern could find a base around the 2000 price level, but otherwise we are at the mercy of the markets waiting to see what they will do next in the short term.

Any move down that is not a great looking impulse, will leave this market open for another run heading north. For the last year or so the SP500 has created a flat top pattern, which will take a long time to sort out where each peak belongs to. Even lower lows can be confusing if we are just in a 4th wave correction. Besides, any big bear market is just a correction to part of an even  bigger bull market, much like the 2009 bottom produced.    

 Being at record tops and the markets starting to wobble, never brings out the bullish confidence for investors. Traders on the other hand couldn’t care less as they play the markets up or down. Gold is also reacting to this potential stock decline, as gold exploding with another push higher. 

 

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New York Harbor ULSD Futures

 

HON16-June-8-2016

 

This is the very first time that I have put up this chart as it is a new one which seems to be a blend of fuel that can be used for diesel, jet fuel and heating oil.  I just looked at the big wave counts and I think much of it is the same as crude oil. There would be differences as this fuel is at the mercy of the distilleries, and can dramatically change due to weather or climate related events.  Wild moves in all directions would be the norm, but we could also be going up to another (E) wave in Intermediate degree. 

The 2016 low pierced well into the 2000 peak so that kills the potential for an impulse 5th wave rally. Some say you can dip into wave one like this in futures, but the patterns for the rest of this year should give us more of a clue, if this present rally acts like an impulse. At this time I don’t think that would be the case, but we will watch for it when the time is right. 

I am sure that the $3.30 price from 2011-2013 will get exceeded again, and then this USLD chart is only a hop and skip, away from reaching all new record highs.  

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WTI Crude Oil Bullish Run Review

 

CLN16-June-8-2016

 

Crude oil keeps trucking along pushing up with higher highs. Since last month the pattern has changed to where we have overlapping waves, creating a diagonal 5th wave.  This also can be a running triangle so if we get a violent shake out to the downside with another 3 wave pattern, “E” wave, then this could be a great setup for one more big leg to the upside. 

The gold/oil ratio is still sitting at 24.73:1 which is still rather cheap when compared to gold. In the big scope of things any 17:1 ratio may be when oil is starting to get expensive to gold as that’s what happen before crude oil took its big nose dive.  My “D” wave bottom in Intermediate degree is still holding and at this time, there seems to be little chance of the “D” wave of being broken. 

I think we are still far away from any potential “A” wave in Minor degree, but we have to see what the next move down will give us. It would be exciting if  oil still were to hit the Fibonacci $55 price level as that could be a realistic price level that my Minute wave 3 may be ending. Crude oil is famous for having 5th wave extensions, so we still could be in for a very wild ride.

It would be insane if the anticipated, Minor degree “A” wave ended closer to the Fibonacci $89 price level. It would be the downward “B” wave that can give us the most problems as it may contain a triangle giving us a big clue, that only one more big push is coming before another big implosion in WTI crude oil prices.

If all else is on track then we should see crude oil above $115 one more time, and even push higher where we could see another extreme double top in oil at the $147+ price level. After that the entire oil bull market would be at risk of imploding again to an extreme low of around $10.

Of course that $10 scenario is still a long way off, but it would provide the basis for my Cycle degree 4th wave low. The problem with talking about such an extreme makes people think that it will happen now or this year,  which is the last thing I want readers to think.  From my perspective, it is necessary to think in the higher degree patterns, as that can make guessing the smaller degrees easier. 

 

 

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Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review.

 

ESY00-June-8-2016

 

So close, but we still don’t have a breakout as a done deal. I looked over the big picture thinking how this market just refuses to die. I can only guess that there are lazy actors at work, and that they refuse to follow the script.  When this happens, it is very important to go over the bigger picture and see if an alternate wave pattern can be counted out. 

We had a March crash low, after which this cash chart started to soar. Ok, but if a single impulse is in progress, then does that mean a super rally is still ahead of us? Well, yes and no, as we could still be faced with another zigzag, and we may be approaching the “A” wave soon. Of course, if what I have is an expanded correction, then the “C” leg of it is already being played out.  We need a clear correction to give us the confidence that this bullish phase still has legs.

There are just too many discrepancies between the Russel 2000 and this stock market, which I don’t think should be the case if the real 5 wave impulse “C” wave, is here already.  We have so many tops from May 2015 until now,  that it looks like a Bart Simpson haircut. Eventually, it will sort itself out as a blast to new highs will certainly help.  

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Gold Intraday Review: Let’s Get Vertical!

 

GCY00-June-8-2016

 

Gold is chugging right along, but has now gone vertical with a small degree level. If gold continues with its impulse script, then we should be close to another correction.  We are talking 5 waves at the 16th degree level. (Atom degree)  The May 29th bottom could be a “B” wave bottom, which means a “C” wave bull market in Minor degree could be in progress. An inverted zigzag could be in progress, and it should eventually blow the doors off the $1300 price level. If we are lucky, gold may get closer to the $1400-$1450 price. $1450 is also the top of the 5 year bearish trend line which shows better on a daily chart. 

I have talked about this $1300-$1400 price level many times during the gold bear market so now those numbers may have some actual use. Price forecasting is a tricky business as we are never assured of any wave count being accurate.  It is so rare that we get a clean looking impulse that at times I have to slap myself, to see if I’m not dreaming, or check how much coffee I’ve been drinking.

Many wave counts still have to develop for this scenario to become true, but we could be heading up to a “D” wave in Intermediate degree. Short term we should get a gold correction, but the longer term we may still have a few months  for gold to run its course. 

 

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Canadian Dollar Intraday Review

 

D6Y00-June-7-2016

 

Our Canadian dollar has also been in a roaring bullish move, which should have lots more upside to go. Just to be on the safe side, I used an “A” wave in Minor degree as a strong top, but this may have to get adjusted as time goes on. Of course, if the “A” wave top is a wave 1 then there would be lots more upside to go.  This will all depend on, if the end of this move creates a major spike to the upside with many inverted zigzags.  

Right now the CAD looks like it needs a correction, but not too big of a correction if this bullish cycle is set to continue. 

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US Dollar Intraday Decline Review

 

DXY00-June-7-2016

 

The US dollar has slowly worked its way down, which sure looks like an impulse wave decline at this time. In order for gold to keep making its bullish moves,  the US dollar has to remain bearish. I may have to kick my degrees up by one level, but I may do that once this impulse heading down has played out.  The only way this impulse will work is if we start with two sets of 1-2 waves, and even then we could hit yet another potential “A” wave bottom.

All this is strictly speculative thinking based on an impulse that could die about as fast as it started. On the 3rd of June the new moon was setup for the weekend. We still have 8 trading days left before the next full moon. Full moons can be very bullish for stocks, but it does not always work out that way.  

The moon cycles can provide turning dates and I occasionally use them to see if they work. The jury is still out, but they can provide about 12-14 day cycle durations.   

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Mini SP500 Daily Cash Chart Review

 

ESY00-June-7-2016

 

This is the cash chart of the Mini SP500 and is just used in lieu of an index. The June contract will be finished in 10 days, or sooner, after which we will swing into the September contract. With this chart, we still have not exceeded May 2015 highs, but we are so close to breaking out.   Now it becomes important for the SP500 to show some clarity, and not leave us with this mess of topping peaks.  This would kill any hope of a potential, wave two top,  in Intermediate degree.   In a perfect world, I would like to see a cleaner top, but I have to stop whining as this world is not perfect.  Elliott Waves will do everything in their power to constantly try and fool us, as no wave count is a sure bet.

This surely can’t go on forever and we have to see when this next set of 5 waves is going to complete. What type of pattern any decline makes is the most important thing as if they are corrections then another leg up will happen. For close to a year this market has gone sideways with virtually no real net gain. We need all the discouraged stock investors to head  into gold as it is pretty hard to ignore all the gains gold has made, while stocks bounce around like a wild rabbit!   

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Gold Intraday Bullish Phase Review.

 

GCY00-June-7-2016

 

Gold has made a nice correction, or should I say, “it looks like one”.  Gold bottomed close to the 30th of May and since then has pushed north.  If this is the start of another major leg up, then gold has to perform, or act like an idealized impulse wave should. It will be critical for the rest of this week,  as we do not want to see anymore lower lows, but would rather see gold charge to the moon.   

We could be in a “C” wave bullish run so this could mean that a “D” wave bull market can be in progress.  Another major leg up would blow the doors off the $1300 price level and then gold could run to $1400+. That’s the rosy bullish picture, but we have to keep looking for the probability that the bullish assessment is wrong. Hopefully it will not take too long to help confirm the bullish side of this gold move.     

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DJIA Intraday Bull Market Review: Melt Up or Meltdown?

 

 

YMM16-June-7-2016

 

Once again the stock market has roared, charging up and creating another higher high.  The potential for this pattern to be in an expanded flat is too big to ignore, but at the same time a diagonal can still play out.  One pattern, could send the markets to a crushing decline, while the other will only take it part of the way. After another correction the 17,840 price level will become important, as that would push the 4th wave diagonal decline to its limits.

 The SP500 is more mundane compared to the DJIA, as the DJIA only has 30 stocks in it. If you want wild moves, then the DJIA will provide it as the SP500 would be a pussy due to the SP500 containing 500 stocks. The more stocks, the more it will act like a big sponge.   As much as we can lump the DJIA and SP500 with the same wave counts, there are big differences which do not always confirm each other.  

Of course, if this still turns into a diagonal 5th wave, then we also know that a potential bigger wave count will also be due. 

George Soros’s fund has bet against stocks and is bullish on gold . This is  good news to help support a bearish wave count, while others are calling for a “melt-up” .   Either way, when the majority is bullish then, who is left to get in?  We eventually always get back to the same old question of who will be the “Greatest Fool”, buying at the very tip of a bullish phase?

Of course traders will do just about anything, jumping on and off any running bandwagon. As their stop loss orders get hit, they can turn bulls into bears, and bears into bulls, very quickly.  

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Review

 

CLN16-June-6-2016

 

Crude oil has been wobbling around the $50 price level, and I am still expecting a correction that may take WTI oil down a notch or two. The $44 price level would be a good price target as any previous low can act like a support level.  I read a news story that includes a chart of all the oil carriers positions in the mid east.  This was fascinating to see as millions of barrels of oil are still floating around waiting for a spot to unload.  Ships in transit also were included.

Of course, there is a flip side to this as the supply destruction is also still in full swing. In the long run this bull market in oil is still alive, but a correction should happen, as many are very bullish with this bull market. Some are using the  $120 oil already.

When many are bullish then it is usually time for some type of a correction, and I favor another zigzag within a bigger diagonal pattern.  We are still a long way away from any potential “A” wave in Minor degree.  This bullish phase may not be finished as diagonals can drag on and on, then when you have thrown in the towel, and surrendered to the oil bulls, oil turns around, and heads south. 

Short term I am bearish, but longer term this bull market is far from over. 

 

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