In general, I do not post on Sundays or any US and Canadian holidays, but occasionally I will break that guideline to give a bigger picture review. There is always a minimum of 5 different patterns that can be in effect at any one time, which is specific to the wave count that we may think we are in. “May think” are the key words as everybody has an opinion in what degree we may be in. I spent years, counting in all the highest degree scales and there were always too many waves left to label. Also, too many major bull market turnings were being missed.
We have to get rid of 3 choices quickly as 5 alternates just don’t cut it. I don’t like to post alternate wave counts in one chart, as I start my wave counts fresh everyday. This erases or wipes clean any wave counts that do not seem to be working.
This wave position gives us a look at a potential “B” wave triangle which would have started at the bottom Of March 2009. The “A” wave in Primary degree terminated with a zigzag looking wave, which works as a lead in to an expanded flat.
Since 2015 the markets have gone sideways with wild moves in both directions, which is not what I would expect in a one shot inverted “ABC”. Besides a flat correction in an expanded flat would be rare if not impossible, and another bull market zigzag would suggest a very big triangle. I don’t think the markets are going for a Cycle degree triangle, as the solar cycles will eventually kill that idea.
A single expanded flat with a triangle inside the “B” wave would work, but chances are we would still need to breakout to a new record high this year. If this becomes an “E” wave, then I can see the end of this huge bear market rally that started in early 2009.
The triangle “B” scenario in stocks is much like the triangle “B” wave that we can get from oil, except oil was two degrees lower. Triangles love the “B” and 4th wave positions, and triangles always force us to change our degree levels, if we like it or not.
The worst scenario that can still happen is that we actually finished a diagonal triangle 4th wave and we have a “thrust”, still to play out.
I have created an idealized chart of all this starting when this “B” wave top can be better confirmed. This will eventually be posted on a permanent page. Idealized charts are critical in helping to keep the sequence in line and to know what we are supposed to be looking for. There is too much of this aimless wave counting, and most of it comes from not putting in the work to go back in history and review everything to date.
Any other wave count would have given us a major spike blow off, which we can see has not happened yet. Instead, we get a mess of waves up top, which eventually must be sorted out. Which wave is still on the bullish side and which ones are already on the bearish sides, must eventually be worked out. Just because the markets go down does not instantly mean a major bear market is on, as it can just be a correction to the ongoing bullish phase.
Once this “B” wave top is better confirmed, then the decline should be 5 waves down in Intermediate degree, which many SC and GSC wave counters, may call the start of a Primary degree 5 wave run. Not in 15 years has the markets given the big degree wave counters their 5 waves down in Primary degree, which must happen to even begin to confirm, any SC and GSC degree wave positions.
Using only Cycle degree as my largest key degree is not something I dreamed up just to be different, but all Cycle degree positions must be found first, before we can move into the SC or GSC degree world. It may take until 2029 before Cycle degree wave 5 is completed, so that is still over 13 years away.