Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

Last week activity in the tanker wars has heated up as drone attacks and crude oil carriers get seized. All the fundamentals would suggest that the oil price is going to soar, yet crude oil crashed late Friday even after the seizure of the second oil tanker.

Attacking shipping just reduces the amount of oil available but it also reduces world trade with an impending recession.

At this time oil could still soar to $56.80 as another zigzag is playing out but a short “C” wave is also a possibility.  When I can count 7 waves then a diagonal wave is a high probability but it also complicates any wave count.

I have a Minor degree top but that may be too high of a degree at this time. I use the intraday oil chart to help set-up my Forex Oil Unit trades and have switched between long and short bets for the past week.

I like to bet short when I can because there are no daily trading limits so short bets can travel very fast. I’m constantly reviewing the daily and weekly charts looking for a better fit but at this time I have too many alternative counts to contend with.

We have to see what the rest of July will bring as I still favor the bearish trend.

The Gold/Oil ratio is a bit better but still nothing to get excited about. 25.5 is today’s reading and any numbers that get close to 30 would sure get it close to where crude oil would be cheap again.

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Mini SP500 Gyrations Update

Will the SP500 create a new record high for 2019? Many are betting on it but a new record low will certainly put a lot of doubt and fear into the mix.  If the markets are on the bearish side already then there is no way the trend line will hold.

Sooner or later the record high for the Mini SP500  will be in, if it hasn’t already done so, July 15th at the 3023 price level.

A new record high could come but at this time its a flip of the coin when a substantial bearish move starts to take place.

In the end, it will boil down to the US elections and who gets into power.  Election campaigning is in full swing and if President Trump is set to lose then the markets can turn into a massive “Sell-Off”.

Inauguration in January 2021 is when the new president and his crew take control and after that, the markets could soar again.

This all coincides very well with the solar cycles as the new president in 2021 will have solar Cycle 25 at his back! Until then solar cycle 24 and solar cycle 25 will mix with solar cycle 24 eventually disappearing never to be seen again.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is about as expensive as I have seen it at 2.1. It takes 2.1 gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500 and we need that number to compress in the months and years ahead. Record cheap is when it only takes .75 of a Troy gold ounce to buy a unit of the SP500.

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Review

My focus is always to link all Cycle degree connections first which I work with 3-degree levels below and 3-degree levels above Cycle degree.

I believe the 2011 peak is a Cycle degree peak and what followed was a bear market decline, ending in 2015 with 3-degree levels. I had 2015 low as a wave 3 bottom but It took far too long to play out, so 2015 becomes the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

Higher lows are clearly visible with the “B” wave in Intermediate degree (Red), stopping the gold crash in its tracks, August 2018. ($1160) I bet not too many people remember any fundamental logic about why gold started to soar.

With any wave position its always a reminder so we can never forget where the wave count started from.

I believe a “C” wave bull market is in progress and we still need waves 3-4 and 5 to show themselves in Minor degree.

I will not post every single little wave count as they become irrelevant due to the fact that it’s impossible to find our mistakes. If we just use 3-degree levels and count out 50 positions, then you have a minimum of 150 wave positions that could all be wrong!

In the long run, I see this as a bear market rally and there should be more upside to come.

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BGMI Gold Stock Index 1980-2019 Review

This Barron’s mining index shows how choppy diagonal wave structures can get.  I have to find a much larger historical chart as the 1940’s wave count is not clear enough.

I don’t believe we are anywhere near Supercycle or Grand Supercycle degree with this index but a Cycle degree wave 3 top for 2011 still fits very well.

The wave 4 bottom in 2008 overlapped my wave “1” in Intermediate degree which happens on a regular basis at all degree levels. BGMI does not get updated that much and I added it for a different perspective.

Gold stocks have been heading north and sooner or later BGMI will breakout above the 2016 high point.

Sooner or later gold-stock investors will have to ask the ugly question, “Are gold stocks in just another bear market rally?”. The HUI and GDX can fit into the BGMI wave count so we have to wait and see until all “5” waves in Minor degree have played out.

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Here is An Interesting Wave Count On Gold From Elliott Wave International.

https://elliottwave.com/Metals/The-Pattern-That-Anticipated-4-1-2-Years-of-the-Trend-and-the-Turns-in-Gold

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Bullish Review

Silver has always been a bit different from gold as it seems silver is starting to wake up while gold has already cleared the 2016 high point.  The choppy decline 2016-2018 looks like a triangle in the “B” wave position.

My personal opinion is that silver will not play the catch-up game as the 2011 peak was not much bigger than the 1980 silver peak was!

At a minimum silver should retrace the August 2016 high of about $20.  In the long run that isn’t high enough to fill out a “B” wave top in Primary degree, so extensions will be required.

Silver is starting this impending 5 wave run as a diagonal, so some wild moves will surprise us. Just because silver is going up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market as bear market rallies can be huge.

Many diagonal patterns turn vertical and we could swear the move is coming to an end, but that has to happen when all the headlines are bullish towards investing in silver.  If fear has anything to do with the silver price rise, then that move can’t be maintained, no matter how much we want the trend to continue.

Silver has to keep produce higher highs which started around November 2018, with a “C” wave bullish phase.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

In the last few days, the oil chart has rolled over and the debate begins what the support price is going to be. When they speak of “Support” then those analysts are still in the bull market camp.  Of course, if this is all part of a bear market rally then we might not see support until below $50.  The world glut is coming (2020) and that does not justify the oil price to keep going to the moon.

I tried to knock down my degree but started to run out of degree levels so for now, I will keep it as a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  We could get an ugly counter-rally “B” wave in this 5th wave, so I’m sure it will supply a bullish surprise when it comes.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24.31 so this ratio should spread if gold keeps going up and the oil price keeps heading south.

Oil has no daily trading limits which create violent swings, so a crash that may sound insane to the majority of oil players is pretty normal from my perspective.

A large number of bullish traders use protective sell stops which are all piled up below present prices. Many of them will get triggered and next thing you know the oil price is free-falling, like an elevator that broke its cables!

I think there is more to this oil downside than just a mere correction but again the market has to confirm it.

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Quick Canadian Dollar Bullish Update

This daily chart shows that our dollar is in a bullish phase which I’m counting as a bear market rally.  Zigzags and flats end with 5 wave runs and in this case, only wave 1-2 has shown itself.

Since the early 2019 bottom, we also got a higher low which is a sign of a conventional bull market.  Just because some asset class goes up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market.

This rally sure can fit into a bearish rally and we need to complete a full set of 3-4-5 waves before I turn bearish again.

I’m not going to give you a price forecast but diagonal 4th wave rallies can come back so far that we can swear a bull market has arrived.  A retracement back to the wave 2 top can happen but time must do its thing.

For now, I will keep the decline as a 5th wave decline but I’m already looking at alternate wave counts.

Short term I’m very bullish on our CAD but longer-term could be a different story.

 

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini: 2000-2019 Wedge Review

Without a doubt, the Nasdaq marches to a different drummer as the 2007 peak never reached new record highs as most other indices did during that rally. For now, the pattern from the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom can work as a zigzag but it would have to be a “Running Zigzag”  or what the book calls “Truncated”.

The 2009 bottom is still my Primary degree bottom followed by a blistering bull market. Drawing the trend line across the two tops and one trend line up from the 2009 bottom, what do we end up with?

We have the mother of all “Rising Wedges” starting to squeeze the two trends into the cone or “Apex” of the wedge. What do you think will happen when the stock bulls keep getting squeezed into a corner? I will include the link from Investopedia that has a good explanation regarding “Rising Wedges”. 

All investors are distracted with the fundamentals while the “Big Wedge” is giving us a very bearish warning.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction but the Nasdaq has no short term support that I can see at this time. Above all the impending bearish phase should be obvious but the crowd may not know until they see it in hindsight. A lot of good that does us unless we take “Hindsight” and always turn it into “Foresight”. The simple answer is that if we ignore the financial past we are doomed to repeat it. All sources of better fitting wave counts are found in “Hindsight” not by flipping our present wave counts thousands of times.

We still have time before solar cycle 24 ends so hang onto your hat, as the winds can change direction and start blowing in from the North West!

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XGD 2011-2019 Review

The 2011 peak in XGD is my Cycle degree top which ended not with a five-wave count but a “C” wave in Primary degree.  That 2011 peak also matched the first peak in solar cycle 24 which is not some coincidental event as 1980 was the peak in solar cycle 21.

In late 2015 XGD started to bunch up and then exploded in a near vertical move after which XGD imploded again but has now had another bottom in 2018.

A couple of trend lines will give us an early possible target if this 5 wave run has any legs to it at all.

Either way, it’s impossible to pinpoint any exact top as we could get another huge double top pushing this wave count to the limit.

The question that every bullish investor eventually has to answer is if gold stocks are in a real bull market, and not just another bear market rally?

My “A” wave bottom in Primary degree gives readers a clue

I don’t have a good Gold/Xgd ratio started but I will try and do some more back checking at major turning points to get a few more max and minimum readings. We are at a Gold/Xgd ratio of 100:1 and we want to see that ratio compress as this bullish phase of the market progresses.

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GDX Bullish Phase Review

I”m sure all the GDX bulls are happy now that GDX is soaring again. This could be the start of a 5 wave sequence, with wave 1 in Minor degree already completed. This time I drew in some trend lines and if this 5 wave sequence is true then GDX should breakout to new highs.

Diagonal wave structures dominate so I have to look for connecting zigzags which isn’t always that easy to spot at times.

This bullish phase started in late 2015 and has now been running close to 3 years and 7 months. The fast bullish phase in 2016 is a typical “A” wave and the angle is the same as our present start of wave 3.

GDX is lagging behind gold as gold has already gone well above 2016 highs and GDX might still take a month before any breakout becomes more obvious.

This is also when any Gold/Gdx ratio starts to matter again as GDX rises the Gold/Gdx ratio starts to compress with our present ratio is sitting at 53.9. The expensive ratio to beat is 30:1 so we still have a long way to go before the ratio starts to set off alarms. Missing a bullish phase with GDX is not what I like to see happen but once this reaches its 5th wave high a new shorting position may present itself.

The $55 price level would present a nice target and by then investors will have to know if the entire rally is just another bear market rally.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, my “A” wave bottom in Primary degree is telling you what our present bullish phase is.

Just because some asset class goes up does not mean a bull market is in effect. There are many other gold-related ETF stocks out and there is no way I can maintain all their wave counts but I will start posting GDX more frequently.  As of this posting, there are 45 different stock holdings inside the GDX basket so your betting market direction and don’t have to be a stock picker.

I may also look at XGD the CAD version as I want to avoid switching into US funds if I can.

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SP500 E-Mini Weekly Chart Review

I moved my wave 3 extension back down so now it’s the 5th wave I’m extending.  Since the 2007 peak, the markets are in the process of finishing wave 3 positions each declining by one degree. 2007 was a Primary degree, 2015 is an Intermediate degree, 2018 being a wave 3 peak in Minor degree.

As I run out of degrees then Cycle degree wave 3 should be next to complete. The peaks will become one degree larger degree wise. SC degree wave 3 will peak in our future peak and not in our present, yet the majority of wave analysts are still trying to force GSC degree wave 3 onto the 2000 peak!  Sorry folks, markets do not have multigenerational 5th wave extensions as they are technical the weakest.

This markets can jerk around frustrating us to no end, but another correction is due that can send investors running to the hills once again.

 

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Brent Crude Daily Chart Review

Brent crude crashed late last year and until it soars far past the October 2018 high, Brent crude is still in a bear market. Any rally can get all the investors excited again, but I turn bearish when markets become saturated with bullish news!

I’m sure investors are swamped with fundamental news but history shows that markets do the exact opposite. Remember “Peak Oil”?  Oil was forecast to go to $200-$300 after which oil crashed to $34.  The experts were spewing fundamental bullish rhetoric, yet they were caught in a bull trap as the oil price imploded.

Now a storm is causing disruptions but that is nothing new as it happens every year. When something like oil refuses to go higher under bullish news, then any bullish run can crash into a brick wall and reverse.

I have painted a wedge and it looks like Brent may hit the top trend line but it can also do the opposite and hit the bottom trend line first!  Oil can crash much faster than it can go up as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities. Fear can drive markets much faster than what “Greed” will ever do.

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DOW Futures E-Mini 2011-2019 Review

2011 is when gold imploded and when stock indices were ready to crank up again. Much of the DOW run has been choppy but this is what 5th waves do. When I post review chances are good I have changed a wave position or two.

In this case, I extended the 5th wave in Intermediate degree.  The end result will be the same as any potential type of a Cycle degree correction can still come.

By the looks of it, the DOW has broken the 27,000 price level and established a new record high. I think the DOW is struggling to maintain upward speed but it can keep us guessing as to “When” a reversal might come.

I cheated at our present top as I left one 5th wave uncapped, but only because I had no more room on the chart. Gold still seems to be in a correction but when stocks decline, and investors start running to a safe-haven asset then that is understandable. Solar Cycle 24 still has the power to disrupt this bullish phase, within the next couple of years.

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RBOB Gasoline Futures Review

Once the December 2018 crash had completed RBOB gasoline started to roar, well sort of because it was choppy all the way up.  It peaked in April 2019 and then again proceeded to crash. The decline can only fit into a diagonal as the 4th wave has come back, well into my wave 2 top in Minute degree.

Forcing a diagonal wave into an impulse is not an option from my perspective.  Violent swings are pretty normal in commodities so if a reversal is due then any price support will not hold.  Analysts that will call for price support are still thinking “Bull Market” not bear market rally.

Gasoline has been in a bear market since the 2008 peak which most investors know little about.  Elliott wave positions are emotional reminders so we can never forget.

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Crude Oil Another Potential Top!

I stretched this intraday chart so we can see back to the last major peak. It’s pretty hard to accept that a bullish run like this can be just a bear market rally, but for diagonal waves, this is still pretty normal.

This oil 4th wave I may have just barely kissed my wave 1 in Minor degree, which is also very normal for diagonal waves.

At $61 oil has started a small correction and the depth of any impending oil decline could trash the $56 price level.

Just as fast as oil has roared up it can die screaming from a bear attack.  Futures are always leveraged and have no daily trading limits, which produce very violent moves.

The oil units in a Forex account are just as violent which I try to trade in when I can. Four oil units take a little less than $20 to own and there are no contracts to contend with.

When I see a near vertical move like oil has just made, then either we get a strong correction or oil plunges with no support!

I will never post long drawn out fundamentals as thousands of others are doing just that already.  A few years from now nobody will remember or know why oil  has crashed.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Update

Once I saw gold maintain a corrective type of a move I knew that any bearish scenario would have to be put into the deep freeze for now.

There are three spikes that show but you can ignore them as they don’t show up in Line type settings.

Many contrarians have been calling for a higher gold price and I’m sure the gold wave counters have cranked up their bullish wave counts as well.

The above wave count is about as bullish as I can show you, as this may be part of another zigzag bull run.  This wave count can also be a wave 3-4,  but I like to work with only one option at a time.

Yes, the commercials are net short and it will get worse if the gold price keeps rising.

Regardless what your long term gold price forecast is the entire wave counting community has to decide if this 3.5-year bullish phase is just a big bear market rally?

In the near term and if gold has the legs, then $1600 could be the next price target.

What nobody talks about is that the price of gold is soaring while solar cycle 24 is still crashing!  This is not a good long term picture as the gold price could be repealed down, by the start of solar cycle 25.

It’s still a year or so before solar cycle 25 starts, even though the first official sunspot of solar cycle 25 has already arrived.

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Crude Oil New Intraday High!

Crude oil has now charged higher since my last update and there may be more upside left to go.  Even though oil has topped $60 it would have to go above $66 to help confirm my “B” wave bottom in Minor degree.

Today the Gold oil ratio sits at 23.5  which is a bit more expensive. This ratio should keep spreading but If oil stops before $66 then a potential 4 wave rally would be still alive.

Gold is still in a bullish phase as its pushing higher as well. If $1800 is stiff resistance then $1800/23.5 would give us a $76.59 oil price.  I have a new set of 5 waves to contend with and they are diagonal wave structures so wild corrective moves can surprise us at any time.

Pipeline bottlenecks and refineries blowing up all seem to create the fundamental fear that the news just loves to hype.

The recent earthquake in Calfornia doesn’t help anybody to calm down but it didn’t take them too long to blame the earthquakes on climate change!

 

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GLD Elliott Wave Count Review

I created this GLD chart late last night but is still good this morning. GLD follows the gold cash futures very well.  One GLD bear market came to an end in late 2015 so that bottom wave count is important.  Since the 2015 bottom, GLD has seen higher lows and has now charged to new 5 year highs.

In reality, the bullish phase has been going for 3 1/2 years already and against all odds is now pushing higher.

I moved my “A” wave back to the 2016 peak as a running flat plunged into the 2018 bottom.

Yes GLD is in a bit of correction but a 5 wave bull run has more room to move up as a wave 3-4 in Minor degree is still missing.

I refuse to post multiple alternate counts on one chart because sometimes we can have 5 alternate wave counts going at the same time.

The trick is to eliminate bad wave counts as soon as we think we’ve found them.  There are always 3 simple choices of corrective waves and the choice all investors have to make is if GLD is in another big bear market rally.

There is open space ( little resistance) to the $150 price level but after that, the $170 price would provide stiff resistance.

Bear market rallies can be huge like crude oil has demonstrated. There are no daily trading limits in gold, so moves in both directions can swing dramatically.

 

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Solar Cycle 24 June 2019 Update With A Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot!

This is the latest June update which had 34 days with no sunspot activity. The interesting thing today was the new sunspot below.

Spaceweather.com

AR2744 shows the polarity as (+/-) which they say has had  5-6 sunspots of solar cycle 25 already but they were weak and scattered.

Sunspots belonging to solar cycle 24 will still come and they will have their polarity reversed (-/+)  Lots of mixing will occur as this can still drag on for a year or so.

Don’t get excited that one single sunspot for solar cycle 25 has arrived, as we need many more.

This sunspot is on the southern part of the sun and the important thing to remember or know about is how the polarity of the sunspot is lined up. Solar Cycle 25  lines up (+/-) while solar cycle 24 is still (-/+). At least in the southern part of the sun.

The northern part of the sun at about 30-degree latitude may also produce new solar cycle 25 sunspots and we have to check if the northern sunspots reverse their polarity again.

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Gold Resistance at $1800?

I changed my wave positions and basically, I’m now looking for a 3-3-5 wave count and if the (A) bottom is real,  then another leg up would certainly happen.

I will only run one wave count in a chart with no other alternates as otherwise, it’s impossible to find our mistakes. Majority of my wave counts are drawn on a printout first, so you don’t want to carry the same mistake to a new chart!

We may still get some corrective action but if this bullish phase is not finished then the gold bulls will shred the early gold bears again.

The big question is if this is just part of a bear rally or the start of a new true bull market!? A “C” wave bullish phase is what we could be looking at and it may last out the summer.

Wide open spaces to $1600 but then $1800 is going to give gold some very stiff resistance.

 

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Global Greening With CO2!

Global greening is happening faster than climate change, and it’s a good thing

CO2 is plant food and these satellite images confirm it!

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Gold 2011-2019 Review

Mindless wave counting is not what I like to do, so seeing the gold COT report for the first time can be unsettling. Above, the commercials are in a net short position that we haven’t seen since mid-2018. These are bearish signals that very few people read or even consider to be important.

The large speculators have taken the opposite side which is aligned with the majority bullish consensus. Folks, both groups can’t be right at the same time and history has been on the side of the commercial hedgers.

The media always talk about the large speculators who they think are the smart hedge funds. Speculators are the emotional trend chasers and they consistently paint themselves into a corner, where they become trapped.

When the market moves against the speculators you can bet they will run or dump their long positions as fast as they can.

I have another gold COT chart that came from the May 2016 gold peak when commercials were also in a massive short position. Gold also crashed at that time, after which it started a sideways bearish phase.

I still have too many alternates, and I will not post or show alternate wave counts on one chart.  All my wave counts are saved on my hard drive for every month and not having many alternates on one chart saves me time in finding any mistakes.

The majority of wave analysts count out hundreds of micro mini wave counts and I always wondered how do they find their mistakes?

The above gold chart could give us a correction down to the bottom trend line after which gold would crank up again as another zigzag.

We also see this weekly chart where gold is far above both moving average lines and many times gold crashed below both averages before a new bullish phase started back up. It would take little for gold to decline and before we know it, gold has created a death cross on the weekly charts.

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DJIA 2000-2019 Linear Chart Review

I occasionally run charts in linear scale just because it shows the extreme that this market has traveled.  Now if investors want to sit on the points of 3 needles (triple spike top) then they will suffer the pain in their investments once a potential Cycle degree correction starts to get serious.

The triple top is the most obvious point of resistance and the DJIA would have to be very bullish to make a solid breakout to new record highs.

The 4th wave big dip in 2018 is just an intermediate degree bottom so once this market starts a good bearish run, it should crash right through that 4th wave support.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Review

This is the September contract and I made some small adjustments to what is a diagonal wave pattern.  With the world being fundamentally bullish and oil is pointing up, then showing you a potentially bearish scenario is hard to understand.

I expected the June rally and it started to hit resistance at $60. Even with trade wars, oil tanker attacks, tanker confiscation and a host of other fundamental reasons, crude oil can still crash.  Just because shortages can spike the oil price at any time, does not mean a whole new bull market has started.

Every time there was a war in the Mideast during the 1990s, oil would spike from a $10 low to $40 and then back down to $10.

That was a 19-year bear market with a triangle in its “B” wave of Intermediate degree. Oil is presently in an 11-year bear market and it had a huge bullish phase until 2014-2015 after which it crashed to $28.

The Gold/Ratio is sitting at 24.2 which is a bit cheaper but it seems to be stuck on repeat as this ratio hasn’t moved much.

All commodities travel as diagonals and they have been doing this since the Little Ice Age. The 1890s DJIA pattern is so choppy it took me years to understand. This all change with the Roaring 20s as other investments took over.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Crash Update

The DJIA also crashed with gold so any rush to a safe-haven sure looks like it’s not working this morning.  The only question is how deep this can go during the month of July.  A bigger bearish phase should slice my support line and eventually the 26,460 price level as well.

The mainstream analysts called for DOW 27,000 after which it crashed.  Now the experts will give us all sorts of forecasts how deep this “Correction” is going to go. If we have a Cycle degree wave 3 top then this requires a Primary degree correction down to Minor degree.

3-degree levels above Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree have always been my goals.

I treat solar cycles like an emotional fundamental as the entire world seems like it’s in a climate emergency!  In reality, the markets don’t give a shit about climate change as we have had a bull market since early 2009! Has the climate changed in 10 years?

Until solar cycle 24 ends and solar cycle 25 starts I will remain bearish but try and catch any larger reversals when possible.

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US Dollar Intraday Rally Update

This bullish run started June 25 and is still going as I post.  Even though the USD can fit into a 5 wave sequence we can get a 5th wave extension that may still surprise us. Moves like this always affect the price of gold which crashed this morning as well. I bet if you searched analyst reports why the US dollar exploded they would all come up with a different set of fundamentals reasons. Even the majority of wave analysts always inject some fundamental reasoning into their wave counts but the biggest fundamental of human emotions they seem to ignore.

Mini panic buying or selling is an emotional thing and in this case, short sellers got caught in traps of their own making. There are no daily trading limits in commodities so moves can move dramatically without obvious counter-rallies.

US stocks and the gold price crashed together this morning which also happened during the 2008 crash.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Crash Review

At the $60 crude oil price level a small H&S pattern was starting to take shape. The speed of the June rally was just too fast as a near vertical spike makes this a candidate for being a bear market rally.

Diagonal 4th wave rallies can explode and come back hard and travel much higher than expected but it’s quite normal for diagonal wave structures.

This oil rally can also fit into an expanded pattern so 100% retracement could happen.

I  never try to put alternate wave counts up in the same chart but I switch back and forth until a wave count sticks longer than normal. I may have to lower my 5 waves in Minor degree down to a diagonal 5 waves in Minute degree but for now, this will do.

The Gold/Oil ratio is at 24.7 but I would like that to expand much further.

The action may be in the pipeline battles with refineries blowing up and pipelines getting old!

Have A Great July 4th America!

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Nasdaq Intraday Bull Market Review

It seems tech investors only see a rosy future as all the fundamental changes that the trade wars are producing are being ignored.  Markets move because of hope and greed but on the next correction disappointment and fear will suddenly come back.

At 7900 the Nasdaq is approaching record highs and another double top as well.

I know I have complained that there should be “No” 5th wave positions uncapped, well I broke that rule 5 times and even for the 6th time as I have Primary degree wave 5 still not included. 6 sets of 5th wave tops are pretty rare as I have run out of space at the top.

A small gap has also formed so in a mini panic this gap should have little problem in getting filled. Analysts talk about the market’s bull run just getting started. A melt-up is sure to come, based on the hope that the trade wars will end.

When the majority are bullish then who is left to come in when the experts are screaming bullish sentiment 24/7?  Of course when the bears attack they will be screaming just as loud to get out of stocks.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio is at 5.57 this morning with 6.38 being the expensive record to beat. Real cheap would be about 1.18 so there is a long way to go price wise before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again.

It would be a good laugh if the Nasdaq was held up due to highly processed veggie burgers (BYND) and dog treats (CHWY).

It’s also a new moon today followed by Independence Day celebrations on July 4th which can produce surprise reversals on Friday!

 

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T-Bond 1981-2019 Review

This T-Bond chart bottomed in 1981 and has been in a bullish pattern ever since. 38 years of a bullish phase that has seen many crashes but always resumed its bullish path and then went higher.

I think the bigger trend is a Supercycle degree pattern and if we add 60 years or part of the 120-year cycle to the 1981 bottom, we get a date of 2041.  2041 is my  SC degree wave 3 peak which for many is so too far into the future.

I checked many of the commercial hedger’s positions and many are net long but not by that much. In otherwords, the bullish march of T-Bonds should keep right on going.

Investors can have a mini selling panic at any time but the trend should remain intact. I don’t think there is an immediate need to panic out of T-Bonds.

The choppy nature of T-Bonds is very normal and has to be counted like a giant ending diagonal. In the end, a new all-time high record may peak with the solar cycle 24 bottom. Many don’t care about any solar cycles but it’s the sun that controls everything on earth including all prices.

I will not count any intraday charts as I just don’t have the time to cover as many asset classes as I have.

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