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VIX Intraday Update: Will It Soar Or Crash?

With the stock market being bullish after the midterm elections, then technically the VIX should drop like a rock.  It did drop like a rock but left an open gap in its wake. In the short term, the VIX could soar, closing off the gap but then resume another leg down.  This leg down is just part of a correction which could end up being another zigzag as well. The stock bulls came out forecasting another huge move to the upside, but I don’t see it that way at this time. The VIX had its low in January 2018 at the $9 price level, so the VIX has been in a bull market since then.

The midterm elections went about as expected with the Republicans losing ground. It will definitely make it harder for President Trump to push through any agendas he has. In the end, if we relied on politics and fear to make investment decisions, then chances are good those decisions will not work out.

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Apple Crash Update: As Warren Buffet Loses 4 Billion in One Day!

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-big-bet-on-apple-has-one-wall-street-trader-asking-has-he-lost-it-2018-11-05

Apple investors are getting hammered including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has the biggest stake ever in Apple. I cannot see the logic of buying anything at extreme record highs but rich people are the only ones that can waste their money buying high price stocks. It’s all the other investors that are going to get sucked into thinking that Apple stock is still going to the moon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/warren-buffett-loses-nearly-4-billion-in-single-day-on-his-apple-stake.html

Warren Buffet is  buying his own stock back as well. If $4 billion is not enough, then just follow this saga as the world is slowing down and heading into another recession. Buffet bought IBM the same way, and look how that turned out. In recent months the Gold/Apple ratio has been the most expensive around the 8:1 ratio and today it sits at 6.0:1 about the same it was back in August 2018. A cheap Gold/Apple ratio is about 21:1, which may never get hit again but when any ratio starts to hit a price brick wall, then this is a sign of a major top. I think Apple is also at a Cycle degree wave 3 peak and they do not correct in just a few months as it could take years for this impending bear market to play out.

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Crude Oil Bearish Update

 

This is just a quick crude oil update which has a lot to do with the fears of oil shortages due to the trade sanctions against Iran. Market moves based on fear never last that long if the real trend is still down.  Most of the oil rhetoric we have witnessed has more to do with the midterm elections that any real fundamental reasoning.  Some analysts also say that there is “no” fundamental reason why oil is heading down.  I laughed when I read that as the “fundamentalists” have no fundamental reasoning for crude oils decline.

Maybe they should look at the Gold/Oil ratio as it was hitting a brick wall at 17:1. Today we are at over 19.53:1, which is a bit cheaper in recent weeks, but not near any extreme at this time. Commercials are not even close to becoming net long, any time soon. That doesn’t mean oil can’t rally, but chances are slim a new trend will develop from it.

Any real support is down at the $40-$45 price level but the Gold/Oil ratio also has to confirm it. The Gold/Oil ratio would be much better between 25 and 30:1, but not match that 2016 bottom of 44:1.

If the declining pattern starts to look like a zigzag then, yes I would turn into an oil bull. The weekly chart 200-day moving average is down at the $52 price level after which we hit a “Death Cross”.

On the daily charts, $65 would get us close to another Death Cross position. The 200-day MA can also give us support so it will be critical to watch once we get closer.

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T-Bonds 1981-2016 Review

 

This is the December T-Bond chart showing the bull market that started in 1981 and has churned its way up until 2016 about 37 years later.  2016 was the bottom of Intermediate degree 4th wave  correction bottom in stocks. TLT has already pushed lower, so that instantly calls for looking into an alternate position.  1981 was also the bottom of a 120-year bear market, which I think is wave 2 in SC degree and that another 120-year bullish phase is in effect. Corrections and crashes are thrown in to keep all the analysts guessing. Two parallel lines, one to highlight the support trendline,  and the other to show the trend across the tops.

There is no way of really knowing if Cycle degree wave 1 has completed, but I’m sure this crash would not be enough. T-Bonds are a diagonal type of a bull market which all commodities run under!

The commercials did add to the short positions last week, which pushed TLT to a new low. T-Bonds still have to follow TLT and this may clear up once all the midterm election results are digested later tonight.

As we can see T-Bond crashes in the past have been dramatic like in the 1998-1999 crash. Not a single crash since 1981 was followed by a bear market as the crashes recovered and then continued to new record highs. I expect about the same this time but where we are in this potential Cycle degree peak is still uncertain. In the long run, rising rates are not good for the gold price as investors get a return in T-Bonds but gold only goes up or down. Look what happened to gold in 1980 which produced a bear market that never ended until 1999!

I may change this big count back to 5 waves in Primary degree, but at this time I will keep this zigzag going.

 

 

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Gold Weekly Chart 200-Day Support Or Resistance?

 

Gold is stuck in midterm elections, but it should not take long for gold to start moving again! The big question will be, “In which direction gold will resume”?  Right now gold has been having great difficulty trying to rise above the 200-day MA.  If the bull market scenario is, “True”, then gold has to soar. It may take a bit more time as investors need 3-4 hours to consume the results. That may happen long before the final midterm results are fully known. If election results do not move the price of gold, then I don’t know what will?

We could see a very violent move where gold shoots up, but then reverses just as fast. We have 3 gold support prices with the above weekly chart, and if each price support gets broken, it’s one more nail, or should I say 3 more nails hammered into golds coffin! Of course, gold heading down is considered a crazy idea. For the last few years gold has gone nowhere fast and when it tries to break out, gold just turns around and implodes. We won’t have that long to wait as I expect the gold price to start moving again.

Trends built on fear never last long as gold traders are extremely emotional and can run from gold even faster. Many presidents tend to lose ground in midterm elections and President Trump will be no different. All the stunts President Trump has created in the last few months, is related to the midterm elections. Opec was glad to help as they just pumped more oil to bring the price of oil down before the elections. President Trump is not the only president that has done this as others have tried as well.

 

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DJIA, Intraday Rally Update.

 

The DJIA finished on the upside last night, but this E-Mini contract sure reversed in a hurry.  I can work an expanded flat for last Octobers bottom but at the same time, I also dropped my degree level down by one. The long run-up sure looks like a good set of 5 waves, so we also may have finished at an “A” wave in Minute degree. In other words, we might only be a 3d of the way through this potential bear market rally. Most of this market rally was just the “Buy” stops getting hit right up to a big a previous high. The DJIA also ended with another spike to the upside and if this is still a bear market rally, then the markets will go back to creating lower lows.

I will keep the postings short today until I get a chance to review all the COT reports that come out every Friday.

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WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart Review

 

I have made a few changes for crude oil, as I’m bringing back that a potential 4th wave bear market rally has completed.  Since the 2016 bottom, wild swings and overlapping wave patterns seemed to have been normal for oils bullish run. Technically I have no problem in making this fit as a 4th wave bear market rally, but time will have the biggest impact if it turns out to be true.

All sorts of reasons are being used to justify the recent decline in oil, but what good are these reasons when they constantly change. Not too many experts follow the Commercial hedger’s Commitment of Trader reports but the ones that do I find are more believable.  We are witnessing the results of a trade war where it gets to the point when the inventory of crude oil is piling up. Any news that inventory levels have dropped can send crude oil prices soaring. Even a 61% or more bearish correction may change my mind, but then I want to see a zigzag decline and not travel to new record lows.

This is just one COT report on Oil and the commercials show that they don’t see a huge bull market coming. Mind you the speculators most certainly do. Speculators follow the “Herd Theory” because once a small group turns bullish then all their buddies seen to jump in as well. This kind of action always puts the speculators in a trap, and in this case, they are in a bull trap.

The media reports the action of the large speculators as the smart money, which their not! I have notifications set up from Oilprice.com so this is about as real-time fundamental news as I can make it. It’s never about the stories but it’s all about the intensity of the news. If in one week only 2 oil bearish news article gets posted, but a month later there are 10 or more bearish news releases, then this has increased in intensity dramatically.

China-Turns-Its-Back-On-US-Oil

I would say this is one big reason why the oil price is crashing as the trade wars start to have an effect. Fear about Iran is also overblown as Iran can keep China well supplied.

The Gold/Oil ratio will give us a clues when crude oil becomes cheap again. Today it sat at 19.38:1, which is a bit cheaper in recent weeks but, not even close to being cheap when compared to the gold cash price.  A real extreme low was 44:1 back in 2016, so the Gold/Oil ratio still has to spread a lot! Until some of these numbers change, I have to remain bearish towards oil.

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RBOB Gasoline Weekly Chart Review

 

 

This Decembers 2018 weekly chart of Gasoline Blendstock. When I make the switch to the daily chart settings then the 2018 peak changes as well. This will throw any wave count into a confused mess which looks more like a “Truncated 5th wave” and a diagonal 5th wave as well.  We can argue for eons what the power is when we see a “shortened 5th wave”‘.

Truncated or shortened 5th waves at peaks are extremely bearish patterns and truncated 5th waves at a major bottom are extremely bullish signals. Nobody will tell you this but there is no shortage of real-world charts with major reversals at a 5th wave. Being bearish on a truncated 5th wave is the worst wave counting mistake we can make. Silver is a prime example of a truncated wave structure, as its major bottom was in 1993, not in 1999 or 2000 like most analysts tell us.

Tuesdays Market Vane Report showed about 75% bulls present so this tells me that most gasoline traders are already into the long side leaving little room for another herd of bullish investors still to come in. Besides massive crude oil short positions, the commercial traders don’t see it the way the talking heads do.

From the 2016 bottom, RBOB produced a choppy bull market that sure kept me guessing as overlapping wave structures abounded. This is usually a sign that this market is in a rally that is going against the larger trend. Any sized bear market rally always retraces itself, and it is only a question of time before this will get confirmed by the markets.

The crude oil markets are just about at a standstill as China took no imports from the USA in August. Hurricane season destruction usually doesn’t last that long, besides that the media does a poor job of reporting what is going on anyway.

The biggest draw for RBOB gasoline prices is that huge open gap below. For the next few months or longer, RBOB could also form another zigzag decline, as diagonal waves are all about connecting zigzags.  Either way, expect some violent moves in both directions as the new trend looks like it is down.

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SPX: SP500 Index Rally Update!

 

Some of these waves in the SPX sure look better from Bigcharts than they do with any of the futures contracts I cover.  We had a nice spike to the downside just yesterday and now the second day, the SPX made a wild rocket move to the upside. Before noon our time, the SPX made a huge spike to the upside, with a huge open gap as well. That makes for a deadly combination, and I see it as a fake start to any mythical bull market we may still be in!  If all the futures-related commercial positions were all net long, then it would be a different story.

Any rally like this starts out, by hitting all the “Buy” orders first.  Now sell orders will be piling up below present prices, and the bulls will turn to instant bears once their stop-loss orders start getting hit. This can go on and on, and once the SPX support prices get close to that February low, then you will see investors really freak out!  There are crashes,and then there are crashes and bear markets. Crashes happen at smaller degree levels. On large degree corrections you often get a bear market rally before the long bearish decline.

This is a Cycle degree bear market and it looks like we are going to get a bear market rally and then the longer drawn out decline. With the major indices it looks like we will get a Cycle degree flat, but, in the end, it might look like a zigzag! I might be posting more SPX charts in the future, as these charts are smoothed out a bit more.

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TGOD And The Results Of A Mania!

 

There is no other way of describing the legalization of marijuana use in Canada.  This marijuana mania is no different than what the bitcoin mania was a few years ago.  They laughed at me we I mentioned that TGOD could fall below $5, well how does $3.00 work for?  I actually shorted this stock several times and made a little money doing it, but I still would not touch any of these stocks, as TGOD could disappear as many of these producers would have to merge. Size matters as I think the US-based companies are already taking over and could gobble up any other grower.

I’m sure you have heard about the great marijuana shortage up here and some shops selling out. Well, any shortage can be fixed in a month, just for every pot smoker in Canada, quit for a whole month.  How long do you you think it would take them to fill all the shelves to the rafters!  Marijuana is a consumer good, so it’s subject to the whims of the age group.

I’m kidding about this, as we all know that there wouldn’t be any takers in Canada!

I put up TGOD as just another inverted zigzag with an “X” wave. We could get another zigzag bull market at a later date.  I do not spend any time on the fundamentals of most companies, and doing your own research is critical.  I have no time and no interest in spending weeks trying to justify any fundamental homework!  Even the Warrant that goes with TGOD retraced its entire bullish cycle.

 

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US Dollar Daily Chart Bullish Update!

 

This US dollar index has just pushed to a new record high this morning! This is not what the Gold experts want, as a rising dollar is not good for gold which has now responded with a price crash of $38! My Market Vane Report shows that about 74% of the traders are in a bullish mood. This is pretty decent but this not at a wild extreme just yet.  Even the commercial hedgers were net long with last Friday’s report, but they can switch just as fast.

I think the US dollar is in a bigger bull market than we can all imagine at this time.  At this time I’m counting the entire US bullish move that started in 2008, as a single diagonal wave structure, which allows for overlapping wave structures. As the US dollar poke higher, we can check the Euro and see that it is plunging. There are a few other currencies that travel inversely to the US dollar and our CAD is also on that list of 6 currencies.  The Australian dollar is not on that list but runs inversely to the US dollar as well.

In order for this rally to be a bear market rally, then 8 months of bullish action must get retraced!  This is not going to happen this year or even a decade from now.  To confirm that the USD is in a bigger bull market than what investors realize, it has to break out and create a  new record high. This high was in December 2016 at the 103.600 price level.

Just eyeballing the weekly charts, we are close to about halfway to this target.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Rally Update.

 

Two days ago this Mini DJIA chart ended with a nice long spike to the downside, and since then the markets have been in a rally.  Is the correction over? Not by long shot folks as the world markets are in a tailspin. If we only had a single wild crash much like 1987, then I would turn bullish much sooner. The problem with thinking about 1987 is that the 1987 crash was just a “Minor” degree crash.  This crash will be larger by 4-degree levels and has a good chance of producing a long drawn out bearish phase, which has not happened since the 1930-32 decline.  1987 was 31 years away, while the 1929 peak to 2018 is now 89 years.  I have learned not to ignore the Fibonacci 89 years as that is 1 year short of the 30-year cycle. If I use 60, 90 or 120 years, just divide those numbers into 30-year sections which I use as my time forecasts into the future.

We can be out by a minimum of 61% (.618) In price and time, so I want to be very careful when I move a big degree around in the future.  Imagine jumping 100’s of years forwards or backward in time by drawing a number or letter on a chart! Flipping numbers and letters around like flipping burgers is just like a warp jump going to Mars. It might take until Supercycle degree wave 3 to colonize Mars towards the 2041 time period. 2041 is only a “one” degree jump while many others are over 3-degree levels off.

At the intraday level, it’s a different ball game, but I look for all the Minor degree turns first. All the warnings investors got with this market top, they still think they can escape before the crowd. Some experts are still as bullish as we can get and they seemed to want to ignore the reversal of fundamentals that the Trade War is bringing.

End of the month has arrived and if this bearish market has legs, our present little price support will never last!

 

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Amazon Crash Update

 

 

The stock that investors once loved has now crashed since the August 2018 peak. There may be an expanded pattern with this top, but for now, I will leave it out for now but a 5 wave sequence has started, which would be 5 waves down in Minor degree. I will have to adjust later but in the end, this AMZN crash is far from over. Over $119 billion has gone up in smoke, chopping the elephant down in size a bit. Buying on the “Dip”?  Ok, that sounds like fun! AMZN could get cut in 1/2 again before any real bottom may present itself.  The world is slowing down as a potential recession is heading our way.  We might not see a large counter-rally until the media pumps out the bearish news. This could all remain bearish for the rest of the year, but eventually, we should also get a Primary degree counter rally within the next 4 years. The trend is obviously down as buyers are no longer in love with Amazon.

This is not some little correction in a bull market but it is the start of a huge bear market that only a few have been warning us about. If anything then  AMZN might become a “Buy”, once Solar Cycle #25 has arrived. AMZN sure charged up with Solar Cycle #24, so I expect the same to happen again.

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PLAT: Platinum Stock Index Mega Crash Review

 

PlAT is just an index of  Platinum related stocks and it seemed to have peaked in 2007 and then followed all other indices down as well. There is no way I can put a wave count to this, but we could be at the point where Cycle degree wave 4 has already bottomed. We may still be in a fake rally but longer term I’m very bullish. Was the crash a human-caused crash, or just another flash crash?

This is a chart with weekly settings and the crash shows up as a single drop. Platinum is the third highest traded metal after gold and silver, but the media does little to report on platinum.

I only wanted to post this ugly looking crash once, but I will post a little more with the ETF that tracks platinum as a metal. (PPLT)

When we take this same chart and switch it to a monthly setting, then that solid line you see disappears and we are left with a massive gap!

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T-Bonds Intraday Bullish Review

 

T-Bonds hit a bottom Oct, 9th and since then has been producing higher lows. Longer term I’m very bullish on T-Bonds, but T-Bonds contain diagonals that are very difficult to tell if the trend will continue. I started this bullish wave count with very small degree waves and will build on that until a wave 1 in Minor degree comes to an end. T-Bonds have a long records going back to 1861, which took 120 years to correct, into the 1981 bottom. T-Bonds produced another major peak on July 11, 2016, after which it crashed again, ending this October.

I sure would like to see more bullish action as that would take the pressure off raising rates. I will keep this brief as anything can still happen in the short term, and we need more time and distance to be confident enough to have a real bottom.

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IVV Fund Inflow Update

 

 

I’m sure investors are paying attention when funds are flowing into IVV and SPY. Last Thursday was one of those days that reported billions of funds flowing into these two sp500 related ETFs.

Who says that these fund flows isn’t dumb emotional money thinking the bear market is over!  This kind of fund flow always happens near tops just like in January when investors stuff their accounts to make it for the 2017 tax season. In late January 2018 is when my 5 wave counts finished, which was followed by another record-breaking secondary top. The bullish “C” wave is about as choppy as you can get, so this tells me that IVV was also in a rally going against the larger trend. Missing an expanded top anywhere throws the entire wave count into disarray forever, if it is not rectified instantly.  Every major index in the USA has this expanded pattern, so it’s not just one lonely little pattern. Expanded tops happen frequently so they sure are not rare market patterns.

I started a new category with IVV as I may post more of IVV in the future.

Since the expanded pattern is basically an inverted flat or zigzag, it would be a bear market rally. To confirm that this is still part of a bear market rally, then IVV still has to crash below that $256 price level.  Lower lows and lower highs are the signs of a bear and right now we are in No man’s land like Flanders Fields, except we have bulls and bears fighting over who controls the space.

These counter rallies can be terrifying for the crowd that is fearful of missing out. Decisions made under fear never seems to work out very well.

I don’t trust in-flow numbers that much as I think insider buying reports are far more important.

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Blog Search Engine Stats And Pages Viewed.

 

I thought I would post some stats for Elliott Wave 5.0. The above chart just shows all the sources of search engine stats with Google leading the way by a wide margin. These are mostly organic search hit results,  with the bottom darker lines created by all other search engines. I was very happy once my average page views started to hit 2000 pages viewed per day.  There are dramatic spikes and huge drops as well but in the end, the trend is generally still up.

 

This screen clip was taken early in the morning which shows 1495 pages viewed already, so today should be another good day. Yesterday well over 4100 pages very viewed in one 24 hour time period. This internal stat counter also shows 79,925 pages viewed in one month and we still have 3 days to go. Using rough calculations I figured that this blog could hit a million page views by the end of the year, but this has been achieved in October already. One day, 3000 pages viewed per month may become normal and I would be very happy if those kinds of numbers eventually materialized consistantly.

If readers like they can conduct a search in any search engine using, “Elliott Wave 5.0 Reboot”,  with large image settings. This will ring up many of my charts on the first page or so. I know most all my wave counts are floating around the internet but it may be impossible to find all of them.

As nice as some of these numbers sound, there is no critical mass here. In the last three years, not a single wave analyst has come forward that wants to keep Cycle degree wave analysis alive. I have had some financial support from a few dedicated fans, but costs in keeping this site running are not getting any cheaper.

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Friday, Silver, Copper, Gold, Commitment Of Traders Report: COT Review.

 

 

One would guess that last weeks bullish action in gold will keep right on going, but the commercial hedgers don’t see it that way as they all added short positions last week.  Even the Palladium hedgers made bearish bets last week with Platinum starting to be the exception.

I believe Platinum will eventually turn very bullish for a long-term bullish move, but any short-term downside can still happen.

Commercials are also building a large net short position in the US dollar, which would be very bullish for gold. 5 bearish COT reports may have more power over a single Currency at least in the short term. In typical fashion the speculators chased the golden bull as a run to safe-haven seems to be front and center. In the end, all emotional bullish moves come to an end as speculators always get into one trap or another.

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HEDGE: Cycle Degree Bottom Review!

 

 

 

In September HDGE completed a bottom before it soared as fear starts to take over this market.  If the general markets hit their mania peaks in January of 2018, then HDGE should also contain an expanded pattern. Our present move up will need corrections and backfilling. In the end, I’m looking for 5 waves up in a Minor degree to complete a potential “A” wave in Primary degree.  In order for that to happen, HDGE still needs to retrace and take out the $8.60 price level.  HDGE goes up when stocks go down, so I will remain bullish on HDGE until the majority want to own some HDGE shares.

The crowd is always late, so jumping on the bandwagon at this time will give you the same results as the majority get, usually nothing! Even a falling wedge can be clearly visible, which are powerful reversal patterns at all degree levels. We still have time this year for HDGE to fill out a set of 5 waves in Minor degree, after which a huge correction will send HDGE plunging one more time.

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GDX: It’s Now Or Never!

 

 

Gold stocks made a recent high-speed drop that should be enough if the next bullish phase is supposed to be for real. GDX must not fall below the $17.28 price level as 100 % retracement is just another bear market rally. A bull market is supposed to give as higher and higher lows which have not happened in over 2 years. Every attempt to go higher has refused to materialize.  Since the 2011 peak, all rallies were just mini bear market rallies as each rally has been completely retraced, except for the 2016 peak! The 2016 bottom created a bear trap producing that funny looking 5 wave sequence. The vast majority of these moves are just “A” waves, but in the case of GDX, it’s part of a potential “C” wave.

Gold charged up again today getting close to $1242, while GDX was not impressed that much by gold’s move up. All bear market rallies retrace themselves, so it’s just a matter of time before I throw my hands up and surrender to the gold bulls. Platinum has the exact same pattern as GDX and other ETFs, but there was no support for platinum as it established a new bear market low.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is not that extreme by any stretch of the imagination as 64:1 is not the 84:1 ratio when GDX hit rock bottom in late. I sure would like to see the Gold/Gdx ratio spread much further, indicating that it’s getting cheap again when compared to the gold cash price.

Hopefully, we will know more by the end of this month, as many turnings happen at month end, or the beginning of the month.

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S&P TSE Index 2014-2018 Update!

 

When I looked at this chart I instantly noticed the exact same pattern in this TSE chart during the 2015 crash as the SP500 -8-9 months.  The only difference is this move did not expand higher, but otherwise, it is the exact same wave pattern we have been getting since the January 2018 peak. These are ugly patterns, but sure have characteristics of the commodities diagonal wave structure I use.

After the January 2018 peak, another expanded pattern developed, and still, the outcome will be the same.  In the long run, the bottom trend line may not hold but at this time it is a bit early to speculate about it.

Canada is in serious trouble as our Fed is determined to crash the markets with their stupid outlook about inflation. The Bank Of Canada rate increase may not sound like much but what rate increases do is drain the liquidity from the economy. Very few people will have an appetite to borrow money for an overpriced home or condo. The bull market is over folks, as the anticipated bear market is going to last much longer, and fall much deeper than we can all imagine at this time.

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SP500 E-Mini 2000-2018 Review: Bear Market 3.0

 

 

I thought I would post this chart to show that there is also a huge wedge at play in the markets as well. Call it a reverse Megaphone if you, like but the recent bearish moves are up against a big support trend line that is going to fail. The 2007 peak was much smaller and sure added to the confusion, if 2007 was a “B” wave top or not. Join the Primary degree wave 3 with the Primary degree wave 5 (Jan 2018), The same parallel bottom trend line might give us some support, but eventually, that trend line should not hold as a Cycle degree bottom would trash the Primary degree trend lines. Analysts are worried about some 10% or 20% correction before the markets soar again. I’m sure they will argue for years trying to sort out the 3 tops in this SP500 chart.

It took me years, and not until I switched to Cycle degree wave analysts over 3 years ago did things start to make sense and fit better. I will never switch to a higher degree as that is happening by itself already!  We are lucky as every major dip only took about 5 years or so before new record highs were achieved again. Supercycle degree wave 3 could take much longer, to surpass our present peak of 2900.  We have 2 major price support levels that very few think can even happen, but more and more are joining the bearish trend.

Things have changed dramatically since the January 2018 peak as the moods have turned bearish. Just because the stock bears are shredding bullish investors accounts does not mean a contrarian buy signal has arrived. I will remain bearish, until at least a potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives, and that may not happen for months. Commercial COT reports show that they are net short in most of the 5 indices that I cover. Until they start to build net long positions a real bottom is going to be hard to justify. Bear markets and crashes are just part of bigger bull market corrections just like the 1929 crash has demonstrated.

Since 2000 this will be the third crash I am attempting to count down and chances are it will be my last one. My goal is to get most of the indices down to a Cycle Degree wave 4 bottom, but after that, this blog may shut down.

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NASDAQ Plunge Update!

 

This is the December contract which shows better when I use line type settings, but it also changes many of the wave positions.  At the top could be my first wave 1-2 in Minute degree which would make the October rally as the potential 4 waves in Minute degree which brings us to a potential wave one in Minor degree. I will need to make adjustments as this bearish phase develops, as there is more than one index that shows a high wave 1-2 pattern. Nvidia Corp has crashed over $100 already as demand for Bitcoin mining has faded fast. Fear of just about anything is pushing the markets down, besides the Fed is creating a worldwide, liquidity issue.

The Midcaps are much further along the slippery slope already and they may also be ready for another rally. Short term I may be a bit bullish but longer term a huge bear market is coming if we like it or not!

What really irks me is that the talking heads are saying to stay in the markets for the long term. This is nonsense if age is not taken into account. Many boomers that were invested in 2007 got wiped out and many have never recovered. Even early Gen X start to retire in 2029, and many will never have enough time to recoup up to 70% losses!

You can check your older relatives and I bet few if any can say, “Yes I retired at the top of the stock market with my mutual funds intack”.

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Gold Daily Chart Rally Update

 

This morning gold is producing a small double top with a few small spikes before gold started to make another correction. If this is the big one already then there is no way that gold should crash very deep before it lifts off for another leg up. That’s the song and dance we get from all the bullish gold investors. Is this the start of a 1-2, 1-2 count? In a wave 3 extension, there are only about 3 sets of 1-2 waves that will happen, so we need one more, smaller 1-2 wave set in order for this trend to keep going.

Any move down that retraces below that $1180 price level will kill any idea of this gold rally to be into a bullish phase.  This gold rally has a good chance of being a fake start, and if the markets are good enough to confirm this, then we still have wave 3-4-5 to complete.

Platinum made the exact same move as gold, but platinum crashed to new record lows already, with about the exact same wave count as in gold. The difference since the 2016 bottom is that platinum was far lower and more sideways in the last year and 10 months.

Silver is also reacting but in a subdued fashion as well. Silver only has to fall below $13 and it will have resumed its bearish phase. It’s more important to watch silver as it walks to a different drummer than what gold is walking to.

The markets have been tumbling this week, and when stocks rally again, gold investors will run back into stocks as fast as their little fingers allow them to click, as fear moves never last that long.

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Has Solar Cycle 25 Arrived?

 

Some science sites are already suggesting the Solar Cycle 25 is already here, but I doubt that very much. Spaceweather.com did a very good job of tracking the arrival of Solar Cycle 24 and I think they are doing just as good of a job this time. The total spotless days in the year are still a long way away, which might give us an entire year with 70% of sun activity being blank! This happened in December of 2008, and by March of 2009 the world stock markets turned and the great recession started to come to an end.

If you look at the first solar peak in 2011, this matches the gold price peak so well, I choked when I first saw it. All of the commodities started to take hits from the 2011 peak, so to say that the sun has no impact on earthlings, is a silly idea at best. Even climate change scientists (IPPC Report) recently declared that earth is going to meltdown if we don’t stop pushing CO2 into the atmosphere. It’s the end of the world if we don’t. Fear mongering is what the IPPC does best so to fight this fear observe the turning your self in the next few years.

When sunspot activity is low it allows extra space radiation to hit the earth which Spaceweather has been tracking with science students in California and other areas of the USA. They also track the radiation for flyers as the increased space radiation can produce problems during flights over the north pole.  The weekly weather balloon readings of the space radiation reports will show decreasing radiation numbers after Solar Cycle 25 arrives. I’m no solar scientist but I have been tracking solar cycles since before 2000!  The EWP books contain stock market and solar cycle connections and it is obvious to me how the bear market in stocks stopped, and a new bullish phase started.

Don’t you just love that, “You are here” arrow, so I thought I would add this chart just in case we are lost!  The secondary peak in Solar Cycle 24 was a bit higher but that peak matches my wave 3-4 correction in Intermediate degree. Solar Cycle 24 is also one of the smallest since the early 1900’s, and Solar Cycle 25 could be smaller yet. My bet is that Solar Cycle 25 could end up being just a bit taller than Solar Cycle 24, which remains to be seen. Solar activity shows Elliott Wave patterns all the time as the 2014 peak sure fits an expanded top! From the 2009 bottom the solar cycle also produced very nice 5 wave runs, but on the downside, they make 3 wave counter-rallies, just like any bear market rally in the stock markets.

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Artificial Intelligence: BOTZ ETF Crash Update!

 

It looks like this AI ETF has a real emotional crowd selling all the AI stocks! Just goes to show that emotion has the ultimate power.  The top has one wave position missing and by doing that, I am breaking my own ‘Law” so to speak, leaving an uncapped 5th wave. I couldn’t fit it in, but this is also Cycle degree wave 3 when a potential Primary degree zigzag bear market could also develop. The sloth of smart bears have taken over and there is no amount of bullish jargon that will turn a trend, that still needs to finish. This could sync up with the stock market very well as a potential wave 2 counter-rally.

I have no real Gold/BOTZ  ratio profile made up but I still have to back-check the extreme ratio. Today this ratio sits at 64.26:1 but this could still spread much further by the end of the year. No amount of ratio calculations will help here, as we have no real knowledge how pumped-up the AI stocks really were! BOTZ could suffer the same bear market length as stocks, which I expect to end sometime in 2022. When solar cycle #25 starts up in sunspot activity again, I’m sure all the companies inside the BOTZ ETF are going to get energized. Only time will tell if this keeps heading south but another sideways correction should happen by the end of this year.

As much as I’m bearish on BOTZ now, that will end once solar cycle #25 sneaks up on us!  The start of solar cycles are bear terminators, so this is when you can witness and feel the mood change along with the sun morphing into SC#25.

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Brent Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update.

 

WTI Crude, Brent Crude and RBOB gasoline, have made a very strange top, which we can see when switching between daily and weekly charts. This happens many times with futures charts, and the shorter version of this explanation is that an expanded top may have also formed. In the last few days, I have been reading stories about what is causing the crash, and to no surprise, there were no shortages of different reasons why Brent crude is crashing. We may focus on OPEC, but at the same time the EPA comes out with inventory numbers that oil traders didn’t like.

President Trump has given a “Green” light for Saudi Arabia to produce as much oil as they want! If that wasn’t a hint that oil prices were coming down, then nothing is!

The “Bullish Exuberance” in Brent crude oil is starting to fade, but how deep this correction will go is still a flip of the coin. We are presently in an oil rally, so more upside could be coming.

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Lumber Crash Update!

 

The lumber price crash is normal, and is an example that “investing” in lumber does not work! Every trend ends and lumber ended its bullish trend in May 2018 ($660). Watching the lumber prices crash is a pretty clear signal that the real estate market is also crashing. I’m looking for a potential zigzag in a Primary degree which could take years to completely play out. Even then lumber prices could be subdued for decades. Don’t think impulse but think diagonal, whenever we get connecting zigzags.

The majority of the world uses fundamental analysis, but I bet not a single person knows what “fundamentals” created the wild spike to the upside and then the impending crash. In the end, fundamentals are thrown to the wind as traders just want to ride the lumber bull in fear of missing out.

I will not post every little turning as I only need to confirm Minor degree or higher moves.  There is no real price bottom I can give, but $220 would not surprise me when we get to the previous bull market correction bottoms.

Every Tuesday I get the Market Vane report which always tells me how many “bulls” are present when surveyed. The MV report has been around since the 1960’s and has been respected ever since.

I ordered the subscription many times in the past, and have hard copy files of many that I keep in a binder. It was the 98% bulls that were present at the peak that instantly prompted a crash warning as 98% bulls present leaves nobody left to still come in. At 98% the lumber prices were doomed. This week my lowest reading was already 36% which is a huge drop. Mind you, it may take well below 16% bulls before a solid base can be established.

 

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Palladium And the Impending Crash.

 

Compared to platinum, palladium is in a different world or that’s how it seems. In the long run market trends never last and palladium is pushing higher where we are about 60 points away from new record highs. New record highs can produce new record lows as this palladium monthly chart clearly shows. The choppy pattern is pretty normal, but counting it out to figure where we are, is a different ball game. What do we call a bear market in palladium when all it seems we get big ugly crashes in palladium. I see it all as diagonal wave structures.

I think palladium is finishing wave 3 in Cycle degree and it may still have a bit to go before it dies!  I see a rising wedge which is about as bearish of a signal that we can get. There are 2 big wedges, and at least one of them will give us a dramatic show in the next few years! Commercials are net short palladium as of last Friday, and when they slowly start to switch, then any bearish move will start to get tired and a reversal would be getting close. I know the book talks about “Truncation” in a 5th wave but what does that really mean?  I see many “Truncated” wave structures all the time and I see them as very bullish in a bull market and very bearish in the start of a bear market. In this case, the “A” wave is very long but the “C” wave is still “Truncated” or shorter.  Zigzags are rarely even as they can stretch so wild that they are hard to believe.

Truncation at a major bottom is a very bullish signal, and the reverse is true at major tops. The 2008 bottom is a prime example of a flat which can be called truncated, but I see them as running flats or even running zigzags. During the 1990’s silver had more “Truncated” waves than we can shake a stick at,  and they were all extremely bullish signals. Even when we go back to the 1980 palladium crash, look how long that “C” wave was in a zigzag! If it happens once in history then I use it for any degree move as well.

So if a Cycle degree palladium crash is expected, then another zigzag would be my first logical guess.  It would take little to crash this palladium chart and no amount of fundamental jargon will stop it from crashing.

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DJIA Intraday Crash Update: No Rules In A Bull And Bear Fight!

 

It looks like the markets are resuming their larger trend if we all knew what that large trend actually is.  This is my third big stock market crash I am actively tracking and it is also the third peak that has to have a wave position to it that fits. Most markets I am tracking have an expanded pattern to them which ended October 3, 2018. The real top ended in January of 2018, just about 10 months ago.  I know how much the wave counts will distort every outlook if we keep ignoring any expanded tops. The January peak is my third wave 3-4 peak since the market bubble top in 2000, and it should produce bear market conditions that will be worse than what the 2008 crash produced, but not as bad as the 1930’s depression.  1932 was my wave 2 in Supercycle degree, which will not end until we get closer to 2041.

In the short term, it could take until 2022 to play out, but we should also get another huge counter rally that not too many people will see coming, as they all think that the bull market has returned.

Gold reacted positively to this market decline, which may be a good sign for gold investors, but a “run” to safety is a human emotional move that will reverse just as fast because if stocks start to rally again, they will dump gold and gold stocks in a flash. The markets have never been tested with the world on “High Speed” data lines, where flash crashes could become normal. We have seen what high-speed computer trading has done in the past, and the FCC is powerless to do anything about it.

I have flexibility when counting down the start to this bear market, but sooner or later real fear will take-over then all the analytics in the world will not work, nor make any sense.

All those that are calling to, “Buy on the dips”,  do not know how big this stock bubble actually is. This market should have a Primary degree counter rally coming, which is when I will become bullish again.

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