OMG! There Is a Palladium Shortage: 1980-2017 Review

Best Commodity in 2017 Is One of the Smallest Metals Markets – Bloomberg

This chart was made a few days ago, but it hasn’t changed that much since then. On the intraday scale, palladium has peaked at $890 but is now going sideways or what looks like a corrective move at this time.  The story goes that the experts see a palladium shortage which is the case of the price rise. They also had an oil shortage back in 2008 when oil was $147, but within 8 months oil was back in a world glut.  Can the same thing happen with palladium? 

I’m very suspicious of claims of shortages with a high priced commodity, because we would have had a palladium glut back in early 2009.  Did we hear anyone screaming about a Palladium glut when the prices were low back then? 

My big wave count with Palladium is only a quick best scenario,  as in reality it takes years of detailed Elliott Wave analysis to create a working wave pattern.   At $890 palladium has also formed a double top so that could be short term resistance.

The bullish phase that started in early 2016 has been a diagonal, with any starting impulse waves falling apart very fast. If the palladium shortage persists, then we should still see much higher palladium prices?

From the 2001 peak palladium declined in what looks like a zigzag. If the first single zigzag is real, then this crash should still be completely retraced. Obviously this hasn’t happened yet, so a new record high is not ruled out at this time.  

As I mentioned it takes years to develop a great usable wave count, and I don’t mean spending decades with some SC or GSC  quest. I mean about constantly changing the biggest degrees trying to figure out which peak is the real wave 3 peak. 

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