Nifty: India Stock Index 2001-2018 Review

Starting back in 2001-2002 I had an Intermediate degree 4th bottom, which matches the bottom with most US indices. The pattern is also made up with diagonal wave structures, especially from the 2009 crash bottom.  That’s one ugly run from the 2009 bottom, and it is a pattern only a mother could love!

From 2009 to 2018 looks like it is right out of our EWP books as the entire 5th wave is a diagonal. I counted the diagonal with a simple wave count, but technically they are all connected zigzags. Any wave 2 or wave 4 can contain a flat type pattern, but in most part waves 1-3 and 5 should be zigzags. Expanded “B” waves could make this pattern but then we need a very strong down crash to confirm that.

I don’t think that is the case as any “B” wave rally should be far more volatile than what we can see. Is this Nifty index also at a wave 3 in Cycle degree? I sure think so, but it will take an attentive wave analyst to confirm any bear market that we are going to get.

One lesser degree from a Cycle degree top is the 4th wave in Primary degree, not Intermediate degree. This wouldn’t even kick in until the Nify hits about 6000, but most of the time corrections will travel to the lower end of the scale, which is at the 3000-2500 price range. Sometimes even a bit lower. A 73% crash may do it, and a Cycle degree bottom will correspond very well with all other markets I track.

Looking at another wedge sure will kick the enthusiasm out of the bulls,  so all I can say is “Watch Out Below”.

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