I’ve made a few changes to my Wave count but the chances of the bullish phase that started in 2016 could be a false bull market or bear market rally. To help confirm that, Natural Gas charts must retrace the “Entire” bullish phase. The $2.50 price level would be normal support but that has a slim chance of holding.
Gaps opened up but were also closed pretty quick. At the $3.00 price level, we have another open gap that would get closed on a potential 4 wave rally in Minor degree.
Commercials hedgers are still net short and I would like to see them switch before I turn bullish on NG again. You would figure due to the Great Arctic Vortex, natural gas price would be soaring? In 2014 Natural Gas matched the secondary peak of solar cycle #24, after which it resumed its bearish move. NG also repelled from the 2011 solar cycle peak. A few more years to go, as the start of solar cycle #25 would work like a magnet, drawing prices to it. Once solar cycle #25 starts, natural gas prices could be propelled to the upside for years.
The Arctic Vortex has nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere because the amount of CO2 forcing (leverage) has no numbers they can measure.
Yes, we could end up with another little ice age, and the alarmists will still be calling it global warming. Low sunspot activity is a most likely cause of the Vortex.
This chart of the solar cycle decline includes the January numbers where we can see sunspot activity has increased. 61% of 2018 was spotless, which may not yet be a record. The record low spot count for 2008 was 73% which may get hit again.
I’m expecting solar cycle #24 to come to an end, and many good science sites will report and track the turning which may be a few years away.