The 2005 peak is about as close to Cycle degree wave 3 that I can get. What followed surely looks like an impulse but it belongs to the diagonal world. With winter coming on, it would be futile, or a waste of time to chase any bearish outlook at this time.
A quick look at the COT reports, the commercial hedgers are net long while the speculators are still net short.
Both groups can’t be right, and I know that the speculators are the trend chasers, who still see a bearish decline coming.
This is also where the falling wedge looks pretty obvious if know some basic technical analysis. Experts can spew all the fundamental rhetoric they want but when they know nothing about falling wedges and the major bullish phase that they can produce, they will be wrong every time!
Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as markets always do the opposite of what the fundamental, indicators and analysts forecast.
The wedge is holding NG prices down for now, but keep an eye open for a breakout that we could still get this year.