The vertical move in the last day or so cannot be maintained as past historic spikes have obviously confirmed. I understand a cold spell may have set this off, but what else is new. It’s the vertical move that could be the end of a run and not the beginning.
I also have an “A” wave peak in Intermediate degree but I have other choices as well. This bullish phase has been running since 2016, and since looks like an inverted zigzag I have look at it like’s a bear market rally as well. If this is a bear market rally, then a complete retracement of this NG bullish phase.
We’ve had three bear market rallies which all were completely retraced, so who says we can’t get the 5th bottom?
With my “A” wave peak then chances are good no new record low will happen but a good corrective wave has to form to convince me otherwise. Natural Gas is another prime example of diagonal wave structures, as there is nothing but overlapping wave structures everywhere.
For a correction, NG could drop well below the “B” wave bottom I show, and it would take time to play out. FOMO is also always part of any move, but so is fear of losing.
The commercial traders are short Natural Gas, but not by that much. My Market Vane report this week showed about 77% bullish which is pretty high, but may not go to an extreme. Anything above 90% bulls, we are entering the extreme side of prices after which they can implode.