Natural Gas 2005-2016 Review: Is The Bear Market Over?

 

NGQ16-July-5-2016

 

It has been some time since I last looked at the Natural Gas chart. On March 7th, 2016 it made what I call a major bottom. NG now matches the 1999 bottom prices, so this qualifies as a major bottom in my books.  If you want a horror (good Practice)  in counting Elliott Waves then NG is the one to pick on, as I would have to call it as a diagonal wave counting heaven.

Reviewing this with diagonal eye glasses on we can try many different wave counts were overlapping waves is the norm. Don’t even try to look at NG with impulse waves etched into our brains, we would be wrong every time.

As you may have guessed I can not stress it enough times, but very many of the markets are all traveling in diagoanls waves.  NG has a very good chance of ending in a  diagonal wave 4 in Primary degree.

If my above flat is true, then we should see NG travel to all time new record highs, even if it does so by the slimmest of margins. After which another bear market would develop. I’m still well below Cycle degree with this wave count, which would make Cycle degree wave 3 still ahead of us time wise.

My “B” wave top in Intermediate degree, should get retraced and any decline trend line would also get stabbed once NG picks up steam. From a glut to a shortage in a very short time, as storage levels are getting low. With many  rigs shut down, gas production is also imploding.    California may suffer rolling blackouts, so until all the rigs are up and running again, it may take some time to clear up. 

The fundamentals will take care of themselves as they are always lagging the price moves.  

 

 

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