Mini SP500 Update Another Record To Break

Yesterday the SP500 pushed to another record high at 2855. That record high was followed by another wild downward move, that can be another zigzag. I extended the wave count a bit more, which may only take a few hours before the bottom trend line gets hit again. I want the SP500 to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction, as a bigger correction is long overdue. The bullish phase from January the 16th sure is not an impulse, but it fits a diagonal pattern much better.

The good thing is that we don’t have a double top situation as the secondary peak is lower. Not sorting out the last wave from the bull market and the first wave of a bear market makes any declining wave count very difficult to count out effectively. Eventually the fog will lift even if it’s only for a short period of time.

February is when the new FED is sworn in,  who can have an unknown impact on the markets. It seems this market is in a generational trend with the analysts painting us a perfect picture of the future.

Analysts are constantly directing your thinking, (brainwashing technique) to higher and higher market forecasts. Do you feel safe investing with the herd?  Market participants only care about one thing and that is that the bull market continues. When the markets turn south, they can panic as a rush to the exits can happen.

Nothing has changed for the impending bear market, even when the greater fools are jumping in. The last players in this market are always the weakest, so it will take very little to scare them right back out again.

The intense media attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn. When that happens, I always ask myself, “Who’s left to come in”?  When a market is priced for perfection, then this market has no choice but to eventually turn into a big bear market, big enough to catch the majority of participants by surprise. We have 15 sets of degree levels all in order from the largest down to the smallest, so guessing at what the big degree level is, is not an option.

I like to be very specific which largest degree level  I’m using, so it is easier to track down any mistakes as soon as possible. I believe a Cycle degree 4th wave bear market is still coming, so preservation of capital is extremely important. Sure we can play this cat and mouse game as any correction may not last very long.

We are coming up to months end, when things have a nasty habit of making surprise reversals. To give this market some credit, it seems to keep going and going and going, just like the Energizer Bunny.

Even though the markets keep breaking higher I will not abandon my Cycle degree top, as extensions are part of the landscape and as wave analysts we have to deal with it. I will remain bearish until such a time this market shows us what it wants to do. I will say one thing and that is at a bare minimum the SP500 has to hit the 1800 price level, which can give us a support  but only for a short while.

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