At this time it looks like I will have to run different wave counts in about 3 out of 5 indices. The wave counts are dramatically different with the tradeable contracts than from the indexes, which only move during the day. Futures that are traded have a wild and wooly look and feel that can distort the wave counts. It could all smooth out a bit, which I have noticed in other future contacts as well.
This Mini SP500 contract did not travel to a new record high which I can’t use as a truncated 5th wave, but it must belong to the bigger bearish phase already. There could be some real violent moves in both directions later this week as any Fed announcement can send markets into a dizzy spin. I will not be happy until this market takes out all the lows of last month, but it could rest just before any downside breakout may occur.
Wave 2 in Minor degree may be finished and I’m sure I don’t need to draw out the rest of the move. By weeks end things could be different if diagonal wave structures are involved. It’s still too early to tell if a big flat or a big zigzag will dominate, but the big triangle can still be ignored at this time. We don’t have enough time before solar cycle #25 starts, for any triangle to completely play out.
I’m bearish no matter what we get, even though I may turn bullish at some counter rallies.