Mini SP500 2016-2017 Review

 

 

This chart only moves during the day. We are only a few points away from hitting new record highs, with about 7 points to go. This has now gone higher than I would like to see, so that is a trigger to review back to the end of the 4th wave.  Then we need to do another wave count to finish off a “C” wave in Minor degree.  This “C” wave had a lot smaller wave structures as well, making it fit rather well into a diagonal C5 wave.

This also would kick the Cycle degree, location of its previous position, but then it would just be moved to the secondary peak.  The DJIA still has more to go just to catch up to the SP500, so we do have some conflicting wave patterns between the two.  If this last little diagonal 5th wave becomes real,  then the wave patterns on the next decline could be very different.

This could still take until the end of the month before it becomes more defined. We are still rolling around record highs which many experts have as a GSC degree top.  Either way this bear market has to be finished by 2021, after which we will ride solar cycle #25 up again. 2021 is the Fibonacci 89 years from the 1932 bottom, which was also a solar cycle bottom at that time.  Solar cycle #25 could produce another 5 year or even an 8 year bull market, and I doubt that we will get a 5 or 8 year bear market rally.

One thing is certain and that is, market participants are extremely complacent, which the VIX has shown us as well.  We are about 5 months away from the 1987 crash date, so that may provide a bit of excitement when we get closer to October,  “Any Day” 2017.

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