Mini DJIA Intraday Record High Update

During the last 10 days or so, the Mini DJIA has produced a choppy sideways pattern on the verge of breaking to a new record high at any time. Of course the idea of a nice clean single top,  has been quickly trashed. Not until we figure out which peak still belongs to the bullish side and which peaks are over on the bearish side can we build a better picture.

This will take some time to sort out as 4 of the indices I cover are still lagging behind the Nasdaq by a large margin. If a sudden spike to a new record high happens then this is a good thing, as it would be nice to see a better defined top.

Today is the last trading day of the year and if the market stays up for the rest of the day, it pretty well tells me that investors have no fear of the future. “The future is rosy ” mantra, is usually a bad sign. The consensus forecasters are all preaching to the converted, so there is nobody left to come in.  If the average Joe investor can’t convince his buddies that this is a perfect time to get in, then you know this market is already saturated.

Stock funds see biggest weekly outflows in more than two years – MarketWatch

Fund flows do get reported which are mostly ignored by the majority, but the majority can never benefit from this information as the herd moves too slow for all of them to jump ship at the same time.  This is pretty typical at major tops, so it’s nothing new from my perspective. Capital preservation is most important at market tops and this time, “It’s no Different”.  Fund flows preceded every major peak since 2000.

Gold, Silver and Oil have all been soaring, as the US dollar implodes at year’s end. When investors see their paper assets declining, they could look for refuge in gold related assets.

I wish all my readers the very best and a “safe” 2018.

My postings will be curtailed until the 2nd of January 2018.

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