Next month we will be starting out the 4th month of this so called correction. Many are still calling to buy on the dips because this market is going to the moon. Oh Really? We’ve heard all that before. All those that have the “Buy on The Dip” mentality have no clue how big the “Big Dip” will actually be.
The bulls are all looking for a support price which also tells me that they have little understanding about how big the dip will be. There is only one dip I want to see and that is the “dip” that starts a new bull market. Another 8 year bull market to be exact. The way this bear market has started, still leaves too many wave patterns unanswered. Sure, we also have a declining trend line, but the test will be if that top down trend line will hold. We may need all of May before we find out, because so far the market is doing a good job in fooling most of the wave analysts.
Elliott Wave analysts travel in herds just like any real world animals do. Three main groups come to mind. The Supercycle degree herd and then the Grand Supercycle degree herd. Of course the most popular wave counting group is the GSC degree group, which are very easy to identify. Both groups do leave many of their 5th waves “Uncapped”. Any uncapped 5th wave sends a clear signal to the readers that they have no clue where they really are with no concept of Wave 1-2, 1-2, base counting. Every, 5th wave we will ever run into, in the future must be capped, by “one” higher degree. Otherwise the wave count is incomplete and the Elliott Wave sequence is broken. In my Cycle degree world you can’t leave a single 5th wave uncapped, ever!
I plan on posting a page that will explain the 1- 2 wave, base counting. I have gone back to 1500 CE, (Little Ice Age) and have labelled 7 “sets” of 1-2 wave bottoms already. 1500 CE is my base for the Submillennium Degree wave 2 position.
In the short term this market could keep going sideways, and the next thing you know, we will be at a “B” wave top in Intermediate degree! If that happened then, the “B” wave top paints a picture of the rest of the bear market. We are at a critical point as all support must crumble, if the bigger bearish trend is already in effect!
There are still too many options at this stage of the game, but I have confidence that it can get it sorted out, as the starting waves to many bear markets, can always be very fuzzy.