The markets gave us a rally alright, but now has started to roll over. There still may be a surprise bullish move left, but if we still have a Minute degree wave 4 and 5 ahead of us, then we should see new record lows again. I want to stress that all the wave patterns we have seen starting from the Cycle degree top have been diagonally wave structures. Diagonals are connected together with zigzags and the only true impulse waves are rather small and very rare. I think diagonals should be identified as such, because they help to confirm location. Location!, Location!, Location!, is the name of the game with the EWP, and diagonals are one of the best in helping to figure out where in the hell we are in the bigger sequence.
You have to have a sense of humor when looking for waves, as it is so easy to get distracted and find ourselves in a higher degree, that we shouldn’t be in. The one place that diagonals appear most frequently is in any 5th wave position, and at any degree level. I always try to label any diagonal as, (ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, and ABC5). This cannot always be done, as room to show them is not always available, so I mention it as much as possible.
Right now the Minute degree diagonal is still a good choice for the start to Cycle degree wave IV, and sooner or later we could run into wave 1 in Minor degree. Markets are making a comeback as I post, so another high can also happen. In the long run this bearish phase is alive and well, and Cycle degree wave 3 should hold.
To give us a better understanding how powerful diagonals can be in helping to determine location, we have and look at the bull market from March 2009 to March 2017. This great bull market was so choppy that virtually every expert wave analysts, counted out corrective waves. They got fooled not just for a few months, but for many years. I was also a sucker for a few years, until I realized that bear market rallies are far more violent and choppier than what the markets were giving us. Once we accept this, then we know we have a very high chance that a 5th wave was in progress.
Of course, if we don’t have the degree right of what the 2009-2017 bull market was, makes what I post pretty irrelevant. Technically speaking, the bull market from the March 2009 bottom to the March 2017 top, is one move. One move divided into 5 diagonal waves in Intermediate degree. This gives us a very good idea for a base, to figure out where we are. I use the idealized visual drawings to help with this, as it is all a constant process of elimination.
Mindlessly counting away, just making electron sized wave counts, is not my idea of having fun. Especially if we keep missing the big bull markets.