March, 8, 2018 Canadian Dollar Intraday Crash Update

Our downside breakout has happened, but there is still more to go. The September peak ended on a “C5” wave terminating a high quality zigzag in Minor degree.  If this Minor degree top is out by one degree higher, then this shows that the big decline came from a Cycle degree top.  With the Minor degree top, my bull market top in 2008 must be a Primary degree.

I suspect the CAD is going to create a wave 3 extension, which could make any 5th wave shorter. Commercials are net short, so there is no reason to expect the CAD to suddenly turn north in another huge bullish phase. The only support we may get will be temporary,  until the majority are freaking out about how bad our CAD has become. This may not happen until the CAD is well below the 68 cent price level.

These are futures charts and a stand alone asset class, which can be played in both directions. Up or down, long or short is all that matters!  This impending decline may still take a year or two, but after that our Canadian dollar could go into a huge bull market.

All this “Tariff War” hype can get serious, but markets have a tendency to ignore much of the hype or the hype is irrelevant. Canada is going into a recession and the CAD is imploding with it. I don’t think that the USA markets are going to keep soaring, if Canada is slipping into a recession.

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