IWM, Russell 2000 ETF 2018 Review

 

IWM is the ETF for the Russell 2000 in the last 10-11 months. I’m sure many wave analysts do not count this as an expanded pattern because they are counting from the late August 2018 peak, not from the late January peak of 2018. I’m sure we can argue for years about expanded patterns, but if we ignore them then I know that any wave count in the future will never make any sense. I can take the Russell 1000 ETF (IWD) and do a comparison wave count, and IWD will confirm an expanded pattern much better.

The January 2018 peak is the most important peak, as the late August peak is just the “B” wave peak in Intermediate degree. In the long run, this would be part of a bigger flat in Cycle degree. Again, I stress Cycle degree wave 3-4 and not SC, GSC or even Submillennium degree!  Those degree levels are all in the future!

Recently, due to the Feds dovish report,  gave investors the green light to get into this market with billions of dollars in inflows. They are all following the Fed waiting for good fundamental news which is where all fundamental information comes from. They sure don’t get technical information from the news, as they are ignoring any “Death Crosses” that are forming in most markets. We’re not even that much lower than the January 2018 peak, so in reality, investors are jumping in at world record highs again. Powell is leading investors into a bull trap, as I’m sure investors cannot maintain these inflows for very long.

I guess the Millennial crowd hasn’t learned anything from the 2008 crash, and investors never will, when FOMO is their main method of investing. Those Gen X investors that are going to start retiring in the next 10 years, may never have the time to recoup losses. We could see a 70-80% crash in the markets in the next few years, yet the world is oblivious to the potential size and duration of this impending bear market. 2018 is a very important year as it is 89 years from the 1929 stock market peak. 89 is also a Fibonacci number or 3-30 year cycles back to back.  Not until Solar Cycle #25 appears or lots of news about its arrival will I turn super bullish again. Those smart investors that follow the sun cycles will be the real winners as Solar Cycle #25 could produce another 8-13 year bull market.

 

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