Is The Tesla Party Over?

From the 2016 peak Tesla headed into a bearish slide that took more than a year to finish. In early 2016 Tesla hit a bottom and then proceeded soar in what looks like a straight move.  Hardly any subdivisions were countable.  From my perspective, this was an “A” wave move in Minor degree.   At this time this move looks like a zigzag, and the new high was achieved with a 3 wave pattern and not 5 waves.  This move is a typical diagonal 5th wave ending, (not an ending diagonal)  I labeled the zigzag as A5,B3 and C5 waves so we know exactly to look for alternation on a C5 wave. 

The C5 leg subdivided very well, with much bigger waves, making it easier for us to see.   Tesla could be over on the bearish phase already, but the talking heads would have to scream “Bear market” once Tesla retreated 20%.

This is where the fun starts, counting this bear market down, as the first leg down has a clear area where it may find support.  We would also be coming from a zigzag top which, means that this zigzag will get retraced by 100% or more.  I think the 4th wave bottom should eventually be left in the dust. 

This electric car market is due for a fall as it is hyped beyond reality, because electric cars are subsidized by the tax payer. All it takes is for the government to pull all the subsidies, for electric cars and renewable energy, and you can kiss this stock goodbye. 

If you think the government can’t pull their subsidies for electric cars, then just look what Denmark had done.     

Tesla has not had any real profits, and even then they may not make any money until 2020 or later. That’s a lot of time and money that Elon Musk will burn through, before they see positive cash flow. 

I have a trend line across two buttons which can point to another potential turning point. There are open gaps below this bottom trend line, and one big gap is at $40.  Not until we get a clear signal that insiders are actually buying their own stocks back, and everybody hates Tesla, will it be safe to start looking at it.   

I don’t have the time for individual stocks, but I will try and get a few updates in when a strong turning may happen. I think Tesla is also on a Cycle degree bearish phase, so I will be looking for a flat in Primary degree as well.

I had to calculate backwards a bit to take a Gold/Tesla ratio, which stood at 3.30:1. It is also  the most extreme reading I had since I’ve been tracking any Tesla ratios.  I don’t have any good extremely cheap Gold/Tesla ratios on hand, we have lots of time before we need to find a reasonable ratio. I’m pretty sure Tesla will pass the 10:1 ratio again, but could go much further if the Tesla bear market goes below $40.

Hits: 5

Share this...
Email this to someone
email
Print this page
Print