I did have a very bullish wave count all done, where we are in a “C” wave bullish phase that would take out this 2810 peak above my wave 2 in Minor degree, if that becomes the case, then the wave 2 would just move over to the new peak and then the real wave 3 in Minor degree should get going. We are bouncing of a strong double bottom, so eventually that bottom will get retraced when the downside breakout happens. Right now 2680 could offer very stiff resistance, combine that with a potential inverted Megaphone, and we have the makings of another potential bull trap. This would be a wave 2 top in Minute degree. By this Saturday we will have a new moon so any attempt in getting there may have serious problems. 🙄
This may drag on into next week, but US Tax Day is April, 17th which also could wreck havoc in the markets. If you haven’t noticed, many of the top tech companies are having problems all at the same time. Markets don’t stop on a dime, so when the trend does start to change, volatility starts to explode.
I have not seen so many crybabies about volatility in 2000 or even 2007 as I have seen in this 2018 year, so I expect all to get worse. Buying on the dips in a big bear market will become deadly, but investors have been brainwashed to do that. It’s the big dip like the SP500 at 750 which will become important and if and when it gets there, all those dip buyers will be sellers as they run for the hills.
There will be clues when the markets get oversold, but they will not show up until a few months ahead of any major bottom.
For any Cycle degree 4th wave correction to end, we have to look at the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, which would be Primary degree. I see three price stages where this bear market can go and the first stage is for a complete retracement to the 1800 price level. Only until below SP500 1600, will the markets enter the top of a 4th wave correction. It usually takes into the lower part of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree before a bottom arrives.
Either way another week or so should show which trend is for real. At this time I’m still after 5 waves down in Minor degree. Even when we get to any “A” wave in Intermediate degree, any counter rally could be very mundane and even short lived. We could run into a bear market that will be hard to see clear Primary degree counter rallies, which is exactly what happen in the GSC degree decline down into 1842. There may not be a panic until the majority of participants all see the same thing at the same time.