End of the week, new moon, Friday 13th and a rising wedge doesn’t help in reinforcing a bullish outlook. This week the markets struggled trying to make headway and the rising wedge shows it. This may only be a Minute degree wedge, but there are Cycle degree wedges as well. When a falling Wedge develops, then this can turn into a very bullish reversal. Of course, if we abuse these wedges, then they lose their importance and meaning. Most of the Wedges are bear market related so any Cycle degree wave 3 top to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom would be a Cycle degree Wedge. Just about every crash in history showed one type of a wedge. The 1937 to 1942 Cycle degree wedge is a prime example what large degree wedges can do.
The initial rally that started last week can be counted as a wave 1 but this is also a typical “A” wave move in zigzags. So far the high peak could contain an expanded flat so I will have to flip back and forth between two patterns until the bigger pattern becomes more clear. As rough as some patterns are when starting out, they do have a tendency to clear up after a while.
When the markets have crossed the line from a bull market to a “huge” bearish phase traders have to change all their thinking instantly. Obviously we are far from that situation as market bulls have just called a market correction bottom. Just goes to show that the majority of experts still think they are on the bullish side of this market.
In a bear market good news no longer pushes the markets to new record highs, the opposite happens at the end of a bearish move when bearish market news no longer pushes markets lower. With small counter rallies, this is much harder to detect, but if we are not looking then it makes little difference, as we would be in another bear trap.