HUI 2011-2018 Update

 

The HUI is just an index of gold and silver stocks which has been in a bear market since the bubble mania peak in 2011. All commodaties are in diagonal wave structures where normal stock market wave counting will not work. The 4th wave rally in Intermediate degree is a bear market rally and this will get confirmed when the HUI crosses below the 100 price level, which is only 35 points lower from today’s price levels.

The Gold/Hui ratio is at 8.85:1 which is getting very cheap when we use the gold price as money.  I have records of the HUI as 10:1 being an extreme cheap ratio, but I would expect a much bigger extreme to still show itself by the end of this year! I can still stretch the time to early 2019 if need be, but then gold can be bullish well into early 2020 after which the HUI will suffer the biggest decline ever.

Any “B” wave top will also be the last time that we can unload gold bullion, because gold could suffer a $1300 price crash lasting well over a year or more. Deflation is the real threat and the gold market is the clearest example of what happens when deflation sets in. Even the HUI has a triangle in it so this has been very common in all gold stock related ETFs. I’m using GDX and GDXJ as my main trading ETFs but added options (PUTs) in August, which can turbo charge the returns.

One month experience does not make an expert, but by the end of this year I will be forced to sell all my PUTs after which, I will look at the track record as a new cash base will get established.

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