This HDGE ETF travels inversely to the stock markets. Due to its short history I’m not sure which index it follows the best. Either the DOW or SP500 will work. We really don’t need all the history if the 2015 4th wave is at the correct position. If the stock bull market is to continue like once they all said it would, then the original HDGE decline would have to go much, much lower.
Until it hits $5! At $5, many ETFs can create an inverse stock split, of 4:1. At $8, and a 4:1 inverse split, this HDGE would then be $32.
Many ETFs can pivot around the even Fibonacci numbers like it is now doing at $8. When I count up by jumps of 1.618, we get $13, $21, and $34! I love the Fibonacci whole numbers as I use them to calculate time in years, between tops and bottoms and the lengths of many bullish moves. Make the jump from 8 to $13 which gets you to the top of my 4th wave in Intermediate degree. (Red)
When HDGE gets close to that, I’m sure we are going to run into a serious correction, or some resistance. Then when HDGE starts getting close to the $21-$22 price level more resistance should be expected. The ultimate prize would be for HDGE to hit $34 in the next 2-3 years.
The lift off we have so far from the $7.43 bottom looked like it contained a perfect impulse pattern, but it was the correction that gives us a clue to what’s next. This correction was “not” a zigzag but it counts out very well as an expanded flat. (3-3-5)
To many wave analysts think an expanded flat in the wave 2 position should not happen, but they do. Even if they just happen once, then I look for them all the time and allow flats or expanded flats in any wave 2 position, in any degree.
From 1970-1974 my wave 1-2 in Primary degree was also an expanded flat correction. (3-3-5) No, it was not a triangle, like all the SC and GSC degree wave counters are still trying to tell us.
What it should mean is that the next move up could be very strong.
Tracking HDGE also helps us to judge when the big stock bear is finished. I will post HDGE a bit more often, but I will not post every micro mini, turn. All the detailed wave counting that we can dream up will mean nothing, if we keep missing bull markets that could gain over 400%.
I haven’t tracked the Gold/HDGE ratio that much, but I have enough to give us some information how skewed this ETF has become. As HDGE declined you could buy more and more shares with one Troy ounce of gold. Today we hit a 165:1 ratio. In 2011 which was the start of the stock mania phase, this ratio was at 63:1. We may not get close to that again, but we do have a target we can use for now.