I look at two sets of COT reports and this chart shows that the commercial hedgers have a very bearish outlook. Of course, the speculators are doing the exact opposite as they are chasing the gold bull market that many believe we are in. When I see such a bearish position as the COT report above I’m not going to spend my time looking for a bull market, that may never come.
Between the silver chart and this gold weekly chart, we can see a huge difference. Since the 2016 July, peak gold has a very bullish slant so wave analysts will show a bullish wave count, most of the time. Silver and the majority of gold stock related ETFs do not confirm gold’s pattern as most of them are pointing down, not up like gold.
At present we have 3 major gold prices that if cross will make or break another bull gold market myth. $1160, $1120 and $1050 will all be critical price levels, besides $1200 being a psychological number as well. For now, gold is still under the control of a Golden Cross but will be set to change if gold keeps crashing.
With a monthly chart, the 200-day MA is down at the $1000 price level, while on a daily chart the 200-day MA is at $1240.
No wave count is written in stone but when the bullish leg that started in August 2018 retraces about $96 we could be ready for a reversal. We could get a 60-70% retracement as well but we better see a stunning correction like pattern when it completes.
Any price below that $1160 bottom will confirm that at least one leg of it was just a bear market rally. Bullish and bearish moves can last for an entire month with March being a very popular turning month. It’s a seasonal thing as well, as people become more active in March when we start to get out of the deep freeze we’ve had this year.