I have what is called a “custom bar” setting, which is just the amount of days I can look back. Normally I always use 500-day settings, but this time I doubled that to 1000-day settings. I use about 5 major indicators which the 50-200-day MA is just one that I use from the conventional world of technical analysis. I also drew in the rising wedge I used many times and the bottom trendline sliced right through the Death Cross perfectly. There were many warning signs at the top as gold could not work past the $1360 price level. I had a $15 gold window where this zigzag rally would be busted!
I’m short IAU which is a gold metal tracking ETF. GLDM is new and I will track it as well. Once a trend change has taken hold then nothing on this planet will stop it until it comes to its final conclusion. Any bullish move that is acually in a bear market rally must eventually completely retrace itself, back to its point of orgin, and lower. $1200 is another potential support price level that should get breached. This would only leave 2 more to go before investors fear factor start to rise. Remember, there are sell stop orders down below the void! Every ETF has sell stops below as well.
We had the Death Cross at this scale already and others will follow. I hope I never get caught in a bullish trap as I took a big enough hit on losers already. All my short positions are in the green, except for USO and that is only a few percentages down. I have three sets of PUT options out on GDX, but they turn red as soon as you put them on.
Two different sets have already flashed in and out of green, so I consider that a good sign. When I close all my PUTs, then I will see what I can use for the big trip back up.
Sure,we still have 4-5 months to go, but at the end it could go so fast, that if traders are not ready for it, they will miss it. Missing a major bullish or bearish run is losing money. It’s worse if your also caught on the wrong side of the trade. For the last part of the year, your going to see how many bullish gold investors are going to get hit. You will read headline after headline how investors are getting fleeced as all markets start to crash.
I just got a fresh copy of the Market Vane report and none of it suggests that gold is going to the moon anytime soon. In fact it all points the opposite way.
Folks, we are at a major price bubble never before seen in history in all asset classes. This cannot continue and the markets will implode in a deflationary bear market that the majority will never see coming.
At this time my bet is that gold and the markets are going to sync up, but it may take the rest of this year to see it happen.