I am looking at a potential move that might resemble a 5 wave run in a “C” wave bull market. We already have a higher low this month, which is the conventional description of a bull market. Gold is still creating higher lows since late 2015 when the bullish phase began. I mentioned it many times that gold should still completely retrace the $1375 price level, which it had tried to do many times but has failed each time.
As long as the US dollar has not finished its biggest bearish move, then gold will see upside pressure regardless of what the expert opinions are at any given time. We can’t rely on supply and demand scenarios as there is no end to the supply when we see pictures of the gold in the vaults.
Any rate increase may stun the gold bulls temporarily, but back in the 70’s rates were soaring right along with gold so it can happen again. The rate increases scheduled don’t even amount to a bee sting compared to what happened in the 70’s.
I think we will see the end to any rate increases by watching the 30-day Fed fund rate after it has flattened for a year or so. It may not even last that long as the first 1 to 2 pauses might be enough.
The gold bullish cycle so far has been very choppy, which do not fit into the perfect world of an impulse.