Gold 2011-2018 Review

Once the late 2011 gold peak ended, we had one difficult decline, which at this time could be a 4th wave decline in Intermediate degree. This big bull market started in 2000-2001 with a set of very small 5 waves.  Yes, the bull market was very choppy, which was followed by a very choppy bear market as well. By late 2015 gold had a bottom of 1050 before gold charged up again, which I can only fit into a diagonal. Since I have 5 waves up in 2001, then any present 5th wave should also give us another set of 5 waves up.

Any 5th wave can be a diagonal 5 waves as well, so I will use this wave count until it fails. Running this wave count is the only sure way of eliminating it as it takes time for key patterns to materialize.  I’m expecting a gold correction, so how far this decline goes could trash  this wave count sooner than what we think. By constantly eliminating wave counts that don’t work,  we end up with a wave count that may work. Elliott Wave is about consistently eliminating wave counts that don’t work.  Any move specific to the degree always has 5 options, so we constantly have to eliminate 3 choices to narrow it down.

Any higher degree top for 2011 and the $1050 bottom is not nearly deep enough to call  it a completed Cycle degree bottom.  Too high of a degree also makes us less sensitive to the bearish mood, so this can freeze us into always waiting for lower lows, when contrarian indicators tell us to do the exact opposite.

When gold stock insiders have bought or are buying their own stocks back, we know that a new bullish phase will start to happen. Insiders buy early and they buy as their company stock prices are tumbling. One thing is certain insiders do not buy on a whim nor do they ever sell out on a whim. Any bearish wave count under those conditions will never survive.

On Friday I walked into my favorite gold dealer to buy one of those 150 year Canadian anniversary silver coins. They are gorgeous coins and I bought a couple of them last week. This is not a big deal, but what the proprietor told me was, many gold coin owners came in last week to sell their gold ounces so they can buy Bitcoins!

I really had a good laugh when he called “Bitcoins” Bitchcoin!  He even showed me a physical Bitcoin which I instantly called a fake which both of us knew. Shit, I wanted that coin just for a laugh to show other people. In the bigger picture you should never touch a real Bitcoin as they don’t exist and never will.

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