Gold 1992-2018 Review

Many do not believe that the gold price can crash (deflate) $500 in a year or by this fall, but history tells me that gold can crash $500 and it would just be a walk in the park.

Look back to 1992, when everyone on the planet was bullish on gold. Gold also went sideways for just about the same amount of time. The angle was much later and was much easier to read as a bear market rally. Total retracement confirmed it as a bear market rally.  I can’t confirm bear market rallies only the market can do that.

Any bear market rally must completely retrace it’s entire bullish phase from the point of orgin, by any small amount clearly visible. Charts differe in style so as long as its lower then, the bull market was confirmed as a gold bull trap. I deliberately kept off the little wave positions as there is no need to count it a thousand times. Technically I don’t have to fill out a single wave count until a major bottom has happened.  For the Elliott Wave fan that just loves a challenge look at the bottom of 1999 and you will see a “B” wave in Primary degree. The entire gold bull market was a “C” wave bull market which ended in 2011 at the $1920 price level.

There may be a few that have Cycle degree wave 3 as a top, but you will find nobody with a Primary “C” underneath it.  That harmless little “C” wave has powerful implications for Cycle degree wave 5, that will catch gold investors by surprise. It is the reason for any wild moves this market is going to get. We are in a Cycle degree bear market and we are far from over as this fall we may be just 1/3 of the way through it, which could end by 2021 or so.

The debate continues if we are in a bull market or not, but we don’t need an expert to tell us, when all we need to do is test the market by selling GLD short. Sit back and wait which positions shows you more “green”.  What will happen when you do that is the position will go against you, and you freak out, take a loss, and then GLD plunges leaving you with nothing, and you just missed a further drop in the price of gold.

I have tested many times before, and this time I’m testing the markets down with my short positions. Which will perform better in a potential crash, a bearish trading account or a bullish trading account?  I already tested it to the bullish side and it was a nightmare, so I bailed and took the loss. My Cycle degree wave counts in gold related assets are always being tested with real money, and the only way to stop testing is if I jump to all cash. (Panic Sell)  I will be talking mostly about GDX as my planning stages are in full swing to buy into GDX below $10.89. I will target 100 shares, maybe more. My share counts are geared to about a $13000 trading account, but $10,00o is the minimum you need to start with. Thirteen is also a Fibonacci number!  When you get your account to $21,000 you have made a Fibonacci 61% jump! $34,000 another 61% jump. I think you get the picture. Never retreat! 🙄

This gold market is going to get very violent, with wild swings the likes we have not seen before, and those who are not fully prepared will end up with little.

 

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