I’m showing a big picture in gold that very few wave analysts will show us. Wave analysts have gold in a bull market with the contrarians making damn sure in telling me that I’m wrong that gold still has to form new record lows in the next 2-3 years. The $1400-$1050 price range in gold is the argument and recently gold was heading to $1325, so the $1400 gold price move is not yet dead!
The main difference of opinion is what we think the 2011 peak in gold actually was? If we think that the 2011 peak was just a normal peak in a normal bull market then yes, many expect a new bull market in gold. From my Cycle degree perspective, this gold peak of 2011 is part of a 30-year cycle which had peaked in 1950, 1980 and now in 2011. We are out by one year but the next major mania gold and silver peak will not happen until 2041. 2041 would be the Cycle degree wave 5 peak, and since no 5th wave should ever be uncapped, 2041 will also be an SC degree wave 3 peak.
There is little doubt in my mind that this gold market has not completed any 4th wave in Cycle degree. At a bare minimum, gold would have to retrace deep enough to enter the price level of the 1980 peak of $850. The 2011 peak also matches the first peak of solar cycle #24. 1980 was also a solar cycle peak but I’m not sure of the exact cycle peak it was. All commodities follow diagonal patterns and from the 1950 peak to the 2011 peak gold was just a huge zigzag.
Gold travels up and down with demographics as I started work at the bottom of wave 2 in cycle degree and the bull market in gold we do see was created by the boomers entering the labor force. In 1968 I was working for $2.98 CAD per hour, but we got a 20% pay raise every year for 4 years running! I was able to save money and still blow much of it on having a good time.
If gold ever plunges below $500 in the next 2-3 years then gold will be a long term hold until 2041! At this scale, the 200-day MA is still down at the $1000 price level and betting against gold hitting this 200-day MA may be a long term losing proposition.
What will happen first? Will gold close above $1400, before it closes below $1050? One price represents a bullish breakout while the $1050 price level would the bearish breakout! Just to really make things interesting gold could shoot above $1401 and then turn around and head down to $1049!