GDXJ 2011-2018 Review

GDXJ hit its mania top in late 2010 and then proceeded to double top and  implode in a 5 year decline. Since this 2011 peak I had little understanding how a 5 wave diagonal wave structure is supposed to count out. I’m a fast learner as there are two major types of diagonal 5 wave declines, besides all commodities are zigzag bull markets that can span decades. The zigzag “C” wave ending 2010  is close to 41 years in the making. The next 5th wave in Cycle degree will also be another big zigzag, which will not peak until 2041. (Gold SC Wave III) Silver is a prime example of the zigzag world that commodities are “always” in, and using the EWP to count stock market type counting in commodities will not work.

This so called bear market is far from over as the last of the zigzags still has to play out. This could take to the end of November, maybe by the 21st of November 2018. No price support ever lasts and I’m sure this $30 price will not hold. Any bear market rally must always retrace itself back to the point of origin, and lower. If gold stock investors can get fooled by an Intermediate degree bear market rally, then they will certainly get fooled once the Primary degree “B” wave top is completing.

The Gold/Gdxj ratio has also been hitting a price brick wall at 39.27:1, which should increase as GDXJ continues with it’s bearish trend. I also have a small wedge showing which is a very bearish pattern. I don’t have any bearish positions on GDXJ but I do with GDX. I will be tracking about 3-4 ETFs and all the entry sequences I have mention would just be cloned for any other bear or bullish reversal we will run into. All the work I do is also scalable from the smallest home trading base to larger trading firms or partnerships. GDX, GDXJ,  IAU, GLDM I will consider to use for the capital base that I might have by the time this all hits a bottom later this year.

Deflation is the name of the game, not inflation as the world is coming off the biggest inflated asset world ever, and all commodity asset classes will take a big hit. The entire world is sitting on Death Crosses including gold, and if I ignore this simple fact than I would be wiped out like the majority always do. My buddy and I are having another lunch meeting on Wednesday, where we can spend 2 hrs into covering what I see on a one-one basis. I will be throwing PUTs and Calls into the mix but only PUTs at this time.

Since GDXJ will be off the charts we could expect anything between $8 and $13 as a bottom reversal window. I like to use the “window” description as all windows close shut. Your either in the position you want or your out. Betting on the markets to go down must have impeccable timing in order for it to work well. If you only know how to trade the markets in a bullish trend then we are only running at 50% efficiency or worse. The only way to get wave pattern theoretical maximum is by planning all the trades we expect to happen in the next 3 years. Even then, if we can only capture 80% of Wave Theoretical Maximum we would be doing extremely well.

This is not a horse race folks, as trading is an infinate game where we only have dropouts. I’m a gold bear rider or a gold bull rider, and the only thing that matters is that we achieve a new personal best trade. All the markets are always bluffing us with a pair of “twos” compared to my 4 aces that I want in my hand at all times.  Of course an extra 3 aces up my sleeve always helps. 🙄 Only my one on one paid consulting clients get to see my aces and what they mean.

For now I will use a model USD $5000 based trading account as that is the minimum we should start with. Not until the late spring 2019 peak will we know at what numbers we cash out at. Trading is all about taking the minimum risk capital, and then parley that into something we can use as a home based trading accout.

Trading is about avoiding all bear and bull traps, and that information is free on the internet today. The problem is nobody wants to do the work required to detect these traps, as everybody wants a get rich quick answer. My goal is to eventually draw $13,000 CAD per year which would give me a combined income of about $40,000 CAD per year. I assure you, I would be living high on the hog at $40,000 per year!

 

 

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