GDX is a gold stock related ETF, which has been in a bearish trend since about June/July 2016. The gold experts tell me I’m a dumb ass as they think gold prices are still going to the moon. They could all be right but gold stocks tell us a different story. Since the June 2016 top, GDX traveled sideways and down while at the same time gold was pointing up. Other gold stock related ETFs are much worse than GDX. Late summer 2018 is when our recent bull market started and GDX would have to play catch up to come close to what gold performed during the same time period.
Gold stocks have been lagging behind gold, which has been normal at most turnings. In order for GDX to continue its so-called bullish trend, then that top trend line “Must” get breached by a long shot. The GDX $26 price range would be the minimum that GDX would have to retrace back up to. If and when GDX moves below that 2016 low, then we know for sure that the entire move was just a big bear market rally.
Any gold stock move that is fear related or safe-haven related never lasts in the long run, because those are all emotional moves.
The Gold/GDX ratio is presently at 61:1, at 84:1 GDX would be pushing the extreme cheap side when compared to the price of gold.