GDX Bear Market 2011-2018 Review

 

I have no wave positions labeled except for the 2011 peak which is the most important position I have. The two MA lines are 100-200-day MA and it still works fine with these bigchart charts. I may be focusing on GDX and it’s future trade set-ups but this is all just cloned for any other gold stock ETF we may want to add in the future.

My buddy has taken an options course in the past, but he is a bit rusty on options, just like I am! We constantly txt each other, as I tell him all about my put options on GDX.

If you only know how to invest in gold stocks, with long positions, then you are just using 50% of the efficiency built into every move. Knowing how to bet long and short in GDX is the key as your efficiency is doubled when stort selling is introduced.

You can see above how much a Death Cross forecasts a “long term” bearish trend just about a year after the peaks. I look for a specific sequence and in 2017 the Golden Cross appeared, which will be followed shortly with another Death Cross soon. Death Crosses are the ultimate best positions to be short on, which I have been since GDX peaked at a $21.92 position. GDX has to fall below $12 like gold has to fall below $1047, which will the point of a complete retracement of a bear market rally.

I don’t want to post too much about my options trading mix, as I have to consult with my buddy to make sure I’m calculating them right. (Reality Check) I assure you I also have puts out on GDX, with various strike prices and expiration dates. Options all turn red the instant you apply them, and they can even go to zero at lightning fast speeds as well.

I know that any opition that is at zero is “never” dead until the very last day before expiration. The put or call can be at zero in the morning and before the end of the day can explode in price. To catch those gains you need to sit and wait with your finger on the trigger during that one day time period.

Last week all my puts were deep in the red but late on Friday one of my biggest put positions already turned green. Green is good in any direction we bet on, so this is a very good sign. All my options positions end up on my CAD side, and how good they will work, I will not know until their experation dates come close, or when I close them off.

All my gold related positions continuously have real money behind them, as missing any move will dramatically alter our efficiency rate over the years.

We can “never” achive the Theoretical Wave Maximum (TWM) of any wave pattern, so if we’re to capture just 80% of the Theoretical Wave Maximum, then we would be doing extremely well. For GDX the downside potential has a window of about $1, while the top may have a $15 window.

Trading is all about taking the minimum capital base, like $5000 USD, and turning it into a strong trading account where you generate a cash flow for the rest of your life.   My goal is to achive a $34,000 a year CAD income which is about $18 per hour, based on a specific formula taught to me  in my government sponsored home based business consulting course.

Very few people understand the consulting world, but there is no real price limit to what you can ask for in consulting fees. Back in the early 1980s my father inlaw was a full charterd accountant with a 4-5 man crew of subordinates. At that time he was charging $400-$600 CAD per hour consulting fees and he was happy to take those fees!

My long range gold cycle consulting fees will be one Troy gold ounce per hour, with a minumum of a two-hour session, for any money manager that handles other clients money. If they complain how steep that fee is, then I will instantly double it without hesitation! If said money manager wants to bring a client to sit in, then my consulting fees applies to them as well. I know the value of my 20 years worth of research as it has to supply me with a good trading income as well.

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