GBP Monthly Chart: 1979-2018 Elliott Wave Triangle Update

In some of my past updates I didn’t go back far enough to see the big picture, but with this monthly chart and an additional 1000 bars, we can go back to  1979 and start another count. I have a very high degree of confidence that the GBP is in one big Elliott Wave triangle, and if I keep the wave count as I had it, we may be too early for the 4th wave in Cycle degree to be completed. From my Cycle degree perspective all my work is based on 3 degree levels.

Primary degree, Intermediate degree and Minor degree, in sequential order  is what I have to find to make a better fit. Constantly looking for a better fit is the only way to eliminate the bad wave counts, which “every” wave analyst constantly has. This wave count position change also does not impact  the wave count I presently have posted,  as the short term target is still the same.  Wave 3 in Minor degree still needs to get completely retraced, but does not have to fall below the 1985 lows.  That 1979-1985 crash is just one single zigzag, followed by another completed inverted zigzag. This only gives us a count of two zigzags that have completed. This means we still have 3 Primary zigzags to go which still could be many years away.  Sorry folks, but I have no SC or GSC degree wave counts that I can give you.  I could give you nothing but SC and GSC degree bullshit if you want, as I spent a decade or more counting everything in GSC and SC degree levels.

Flipping big numbers and letters around is actually time traveling on paper, as one degree is the same as jumping forward or backward in time by 60% or more. This is a structural change and not a “cosmetic” change. Cosmetic wave counts never last and they always make us miss major bear and bull markets.

The commercials are net long by a small amount, but they carry far less risk. The speculators carry all the risk, who have”shifted” to the  to the long side. The mass media always report what the speculators are doing. Speculators are the trend chasers which always leads them into a trap sooner or later.  I have been using the COT reports for close to 20 years, which always work best when we see extreme differences between the two groups. If net positions get close to a 4 or 5:1 ratio, then I consider this as a substantial extreme. It also puts our wave counts, at risk of being wiped out.

I will be posting more GBP charts, but mostly from daily or weekly charts and Minor degree turnings.  I think this picture above will show much better as we head into the fall time period. Those that think that the British Pound is going to soar are in a bull trap, so they eventually will have to pull the ejection seat and bail out.

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