The Euro is in the US dollar basket so when the US dollar is bullish the Euro will turn bearish. Sure we had a great run in 2017, and gold responded. The problem is, if the Euro is in a bear market rally, then a complete retracement of this bullish phase will happen. The hedge funds are still very bullish with the Euro, but the commercials are building up their short positions. This doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy to call a super Euro bull market just because of the 2017 rally. There is an expanded pattern in this 4th wave, just like there is in the US dollar.
Even as other COT reports favored gold just recently, the Euro postions do not come close. The hedge funds have to switch to net short postions, while the commerials build up their long positions.
The Death Cross in the Euro daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still to happen. Right now there is a toss-up if Death Crosss have power over COT reports. I hope to have a better understanding of this by the end of the year. So far Death Cross over COT reports rule with the Euro!