At this time I will keep counting like the January/February 2018 peak is a 4th wave peak. During the last 8-9 months, the EURO pattern produced a choppy pattern that contains an expanded pattern in a 4th wave position. Since November 2018 the EURO rally was also very choppy which fits a bear market rally very well. I can’t create a set of clean 5 waves up, so the EURO has the best chance of completely retracing its bearish rally. All the experts in the world will give you reasons why the EURO goes up and down. I don’t need to regurgitate all the fundamental reasons for the EUROs up and down action because you can’t trade on fundamental reasons that change like the wind.
The bottom trend line would be an early warning that the bearish run is over but we have to keep alternates handy just in case.