E-Mini S&P MidCap 400 Index Bull Market Review

This is the cash, futures price chart, expanded to a weekly chart with 1500 bars. I kept the wave count fairly simple, but the most important question is, “what degree and pattern is our present bull market”?  Starting back at the peak of 2000, we had a sideways, and then a fast down move which is a flat. From late 2002 to 2007, the markets gave us another bullish phase lasting close to 5 years.

By mid 2007 this market was ready to implode, and sure enough the world was embroiled in a financial crisis, which it’s still trying to recover from today. I have the early 2009-2018 bullish phase as 5 waves up in Intermediate degree, terminating at a 5th wave in Primary degree.

If this 2009-2018 rally suddenly becomes a 5 wave set in Primary degree, then anyone with this wave count has transported themselves into the future a long time ago. One simple large degree being in the wrong place, can move us around in time by 100-200 years.

Moving wave positions around with no respect for the sequential math involved, is the fault of consensus analytics, it’s not the failure of the EWP.

If our wave counts cause us to miss complete bull markets, then it’s “high time” to throw out our original premises and start again.  The general guideline I use is, “if a Primary degree 5 wave set fails in any direction, then at a very minimum, you have to completely recount all wave structures going back two higher degree levels”.

A Primary degree failure must force us to review all past SC, and Cycle degree positions. Any kid with a hacked EWP book can baffle us with the mindless use of numbers and letters. What good does trying to count all the mini, mini, micro mini wave structures, if we end up missing an entire 8 year bull market? Sure, I count the small intraday wave structures, but I do that with my finger pointed at the screen or from a printout.

In the next 2-3 years, it will be important to recognize a large “ABC” pattern when it starts to finish, as after this “ABC” pattern has completed, another 8 year bull market would be ready to rise from the ashes again. Below the 2011 low of 400, is the minimum retracement that we would need. More downside than that is not a problem for any impending bear market. I like to be specific in what I must have or must get, so it becomes easier to notice early when we are wrong.

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