This is the index which does not move during the nighttime trading sessions. They also produce far better wave patterns than what individual futures contracts do which have contracts space 3 months apart. This a standard daily chart and is the first place to look for an impending death cross. So far no Death Cross has formed but by the time the next leg down is in progress then we should expect the Death Cross to happen. My 5 waves up, ended with the late January 2018 peak and what followed fits best as part of an expanded pattern that produced the secondary top on October 3rd, 2018. What followed after the October peak was a set of 5 waves in Minute degree which ended on my wave 1 in Minor degree with a double bottom like pattern.
It has now surged further than I would like so, this calls for an instant review for an alternate short-term wave count. The big wave count has not changed at all.
Last week the Fed gave the green light based on the rate increases taking a break. I mentioned this could happen as the Fed has done this at every major peak since 2000.
Investors are not looking at technical indicators, as the Fed decisions are based strictly based on Fundamentals. Fundamentals will “always” tell you the wrong things at the extremes.
When was the last time the Fed mention that a potential Death Cross is coming? That was a trick question as they never mention technical indicators and they never will. The DOW index is getting close to the 50-day MA and may even go above it for a little while. In order for this market to soar, the 200-day MA must become support again, but once this Santa rally runs out of steam then a new record low will drive that 50-day MA into the 200-day MA line, then instantly a Death Cross on this daily chart has occurred. Death Crosses forecast the most bearish long-term moves that you can expect and the Fed has put all those fundamental worshipers into a bull trap. A Cycle degree bull Trap!
Many good mainstream analysts also have mentioned Death Crosses so warnings have been issued.
Since 2000 each bear market that has developed got worse and lasted a bit longer than the previous bear market. Since we are heading into a Cycle degree bear market, then this decline should also last much longer than the 2001 and 2008 declines. It may not go as deep as the 2009 bottom, but even if the DOW crashed below 2009 bottoms, it will have no impact on my present-day wave counts. Solar Cycle #25 will kill the big bear just like in 2009, but Solar cycle #25 might not arrive until 2022, some say 2019 could be the end of Solar Cycle #24 but this is far too early.
I have created a free hand idealized poster of the wave count above and I pin it on my office cork wall and take an iPhone picture of it.
This idealized chart starts from the 2009 bottom and will last until the 2022 bottom 3-4 years from now. Can you tell which wave 2 in Minor degree, where we could be? This is another trick question as there is only “one” wave 2 rally labeled in Minor degree on this entire idealized chart. If the market veers dramatically from this, then a new idealized chart has to be made as well. The Elliott Wave Principle is far easier to understand if we have a clear vision of what the basic structure is supposed to look like.