Since December 26, 2018, the DJIA index started on a rally and has gone on a bit longer than what I expected. We now have 2 lower lows which are the sign of a bear market in progress. A market plunge next week, followed by another bullish run, could already be wave 3-4 in Minor degree. Of course, we can blame it all on the Apple stock price crash.
Reporters and analysts will always find you a reason why the markets are crashing and if there are 100 analysts, you will find 100 different reasons as well. It’s worse if you are following other wave analysts with the DJIA. You can do an “Image” search, ” Elliott Wave DJIA”, and you will find a different wave count each time. Worse yet they will fill the chart with “W, X, Y” waves or leave 5th waves uncapped. Leaving any 5th wave uncapped anywhere clearly shows that the analysts have no clue what is supposed to cap any 5th wave.
At this time I’m going to explore the possibility that we could already be in Minor degree wave 4, which could extend any 5th wave we might still get. We are still under a “Death Cross” so my big bearish mood is still being played out. A little Minute degree move can fool the herd into jumping back into the markets as FOMO can produce powerful moves that might make little sense when they happen. Just because something looks “Cheap” doesn’t mean a bull market is just around the corner.
The January Wave 3 peak in Cycle degree has arrived about 50 years later than what the majority of wave analysts are telling us, so when you change a small part of a cycle degree move, you are basically creating a “Time” jump or traveling in time on paper. This is just a mild example of EWP time travel as it gets worse the higher degree we think we are in.
The entire wave counting world is telling us that 5th waves can extend for generations, which is false and has never been confirmed. 5th waves are the weakest waves.
The 2009-2018 5th wave bull market was all produced by flooding the markets by dropping money from a helicopter.
I keep about 28 or so Gold ratios which are impossible for me to track in detail, but I have a good idea when something is cheap to the cash price of gold. My old record of the Gold/DJIA expensive ratio was about 17.24:1. This record was broken in August 2018 with a new extreme reading of 21:1!
The cheap Gold/DJIA ratio is about 7.19:1 which means it only takes 7.19 Troy ounces to buy one unit of the DOW. Today this ratio sits at 18.25:1 which is better, but still a far cry from being “Cheap”. The fluctuation of the gold price is irrelevant as the gold ratios are always present and are always being adjusted.