This is a quick update and it may be the last one before I switch to the March 2019 contract. They run 3 months at a time but the volume is still a bit light in the March 2019 contract. Since Sunday night the DJIA has started to resume its decline after the Minute degree wave 2 completed. In this case, it is impossible to give any price support forecast, as you have to ask “Support for what”? The support that will make the DJIA soar to new extremes, or just temporary support that might last a few weeks or so?
If my 5 wave sequence is real then wave [i] support will never hold. Any bear market rally like this always retraces its entire bullish move, and I expect nothing less.
I checked the Gold/DJIA ratio this morning and it was one of the most expensive readings yet! It takes over 20 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DJIA, from a max reading of 17:1. Cheap would be closer to 7:1, but that will not happen any time soon.
Longer term I think the markets will crash at an “A” wave in Primary degree but that won’t happen until Minor degree waves 3-4-5 has fully played out. I would need another 3-4-5 wave as Minute degree also needs to play out.
There still hasn’t been an extension to speak of, but I’m sure it will show up one day. This type of 1-2, 1-2 wave count can be the setup for an extended run, but the last 5th wave could extend as well.
The 2018 January peak is the real peak and the third bull market peak since 2000. Each bear market since 2000 has been worse as each bear market bottom was also one degree higher.
This bear market is going to be much bigger than the 2007-2009 bear market was even though the markets may never break below 2009 lows. This Cycle degree bear market will be a bit longer than what 2008 was. The 1929 bear market only took 3 years, but this decline could take a total of 4 years. 2018-2022.
I can see it already when the talking heads are calling for DOW 5500, you can come back and I will have a DOW 34,000 forecast.