Since the December 26, 2018 crash low the DJIA exploded in an upward path that any sane wave counter would see five waves up and make a call that the Dow is heading to new record highs. Maybe?. The Death Cross at the 25,100 price level should give the stock bulls reason to pause as there is only a slim chance that a Golden Cross is still to come and even if a Golden Cross did happen, it may only be a short-lived event.
Commercial hedgers are not all that deep with net short positions so counter rallies can happen. I’m looking for a diagonal 5 waves down so another zigzag could play out, with the price traveling to a new record low.
Complete retracement will help to confirm that this stock rally was just another bear market rally. This pushes any Primary degree “A” wave into the future and fear has a funny habit of creating mini-panics which can turbo charge any decline.
At 20:1 the Gold/DJIA ratio makes the DJIA still as expensive as ever so that alone keeps me from looking for bullish wave counts.