DJIA Cash Chart Review And The 15 Month Countdown to Oct 2017!

 

YMY00-Aug-6-2016

 

At this time it is still a bit early to explore other wave counts other than a potential triangle.  My other wave count would be an ending diagonal, which the 1st wave may already be formed. An ending diagonal is a fantastic sign that something will  reverse and that would help in giving us a better location. The SP500 and the DJIA have two different peaks, with the DOW is lagging well behind. Even the Nasdaq pushed to record highs with the exact same pattern.

We can only go month to month, as many trends reverse at these times.

This may be a long addition to this post, but my countdown needs explaining. I follow the 100 year cycle, where I just look back 100 years from any present year. This would put us back in the 1916 time period. 100 years is sufficient for history or financial history to repeat itself at least once. There are many smaller cycles that are active as well like the 10, 20, 30, and 6o year cycles.  

For now it is the 30 year cycle that this 15 month count down will finish. This means we have 15 months until the 30 year anniversary date of the 1987 crash.  We are watching early as the 13 month countdown would be the important one. 2007 to 2017 gives us a 10 year cycle, and 2007 would be a 20 year cycle from the 1987 crash. Years ending with a 7, is a bad luck number in the markets, as those years can bring turmoil that the public will not expect.

Jesse Colombo  at the  Bubble Bubble does a good job in talking about the 1987 crash. A 22% crash in one day just barely makes the bear market description. As soon as that bear market was hit it was over, and stocks really  got going with a record 5th wave extension, ending in 2000.   

HDGE and the VIX have also seen record lows, which shows that there is extreme complacency in the markets. 

When the bears see this then they know it is the perfect time to attack! Bears always strike from above, and they do it when the bullish herd is busy feasting on profits.  No herd can dominate forever, as sooner or later every bullish top gets saturated and very crowded. As soon as the bulls look up and at each other, asking who will be the greatest fool?, chances are good they are that greatest fool already! 

There are only so many exits and lifeboats on the DJIA Titanic, so when the music stops few will escape unharmed. 

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