The SP500 E-Mini has just pushed to another new high for the month of January 2019. Investors and analysts are bullish while a big group is bearish as hell. My Market Vane report is ending but this week there was only 50% bulls present which I don’t see as extreme. A 50/50 reading is not extreme enough to help determine any potential great move still to come.
I see this entire January run as a bearish rally but once the government clears up the economic backlogs we don’t have any COT reports to help us. I do have the Gold/Ratios which never shut down but are always active. The Gold/Sp500 ratio was 2.03:1 this morning which it has been in a tight range since May 2018 which had the exact same reading. This expensive ratio doesn’t make me jump up and down expecting another huge bullish phase to come. Cheap is a .75:1 ratio which means we still have a long way to go before stocks become very cheap again.
The DJIA has about the same wave pattern but looks like it has peaked already. This top may not hold as Friday’s can bring some very unexpected surprises which the markets may or may not like.
The DJIA is a bit cheaper when we use gold as a measuring stick, but it is still pushing the extremes at 18.77:1 this morning. 21:1 is the record to beat which happen in August of 2018.
We are at the end of a month and this bullish phase could be just the public stuffing or topping up their contributions for the 2018 tax year.
On a different topic, I have posted a potential shutdown notice sometime in 2019. Please check the pages section or follow the link.