December 2018 Crude Oil Review

When I looked over the crude oil December 2018 contract, I found an extra diagonal wave 1-2. With the June contract, no way would that fit as a 1-2 wave.

December is also a little less busy as the waves seem a little less jerky. Rising wedges happen in bull markets and this oil chart has a pretty good rising wedge right now.  Wave 3-4 in Subminuette degree,  are the two starting points which makes this a Subminuette degree rising wedge. I will always try to keep my wedges between two of the same degree levels at all degree levels. From the 4th wave bottom in Subminuette degree is a diagonal 5th wave, not an impulse 5th wave. If we count oblivious to the diagonal, then you end up with 7 waves. We need 5 diagonal waves before they finish and that is what I counted out.

This is also a very common diagonal and gives us big hints that we are in a 5th wave location. One of my own rules is that all 5th waves must always be capped by one degree higher. If there is no “cap”  then the Elliott Wave sequence has been broken and it can no longer be trusted.

I don’t have enough room to fill all the degree levels, but it’s not ending on a “5”.  🙄

I will be switching to this December chart form now on but it is $2.79 per barrel less than the June contract. This doesn’t  instill bullish fever from my perspective. Experts are not even looking that far ahead, otherwise they would be reporting it as well.

Does this change the Gold/Oil ratio? Not really, as we are at 20.14:1 today. It’s been around this average for over 3 months and does not seem like the ratio is dramatically changing.

Some are calling for $100 oil this year, but they forget about the gold/oil ratio as $100 oil would mean a $2000 gold price.

We could be at a fake top so oil would have to dip soon to help the bearish case.

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