Last week things changed as there is a 99.999% chance that gold has a bottom at the $1160 price level. This also forces me to make changes to my oil positions as it refuses to die, or correct at this time. All commodaties are zigzags linked together which follow a completely different idealized wave structure than what stocks do. When we choose to ignore them, then our wave positions will never produce positions we can’t stay in for more than a day.
The biggest clue that crude oil is in a diagonal, are the 7 waves up from 1999 to the 2008 peak. (3 years before the gold peak) All experts call the bull market to 2008 as 5 waves up in Primary degree but I count 7 waves up, which means a diagonal wave structure is in progress.
We can only wait for so long before we have to throw in the towel and succumb to the oil bulls. I moved my oil wave 4 in Cycle degree to the 2016 bottom and this would technically complete my 4th wave. Oil will enter my Cycle degree 4th wave club, and gasoline should as well once I update it.
If the wave 4 in Cycle degree is in then oil will produce another zigzag looking pattern, but that may not happen until gold hits it’s “B” wave peak. We can’t have a strong gold bullish move to the upside without the Gold/Oil ratio making a big move as well. The ratio stood at 44:1 at the 2016 bottom, and has now hit 17:1. This is an extreme but could also just produce a correction.
Even Brent crude may join my Cycle degree 4th wave club, and I will update the Brent crude wave positions when I can.
I will not trade any oil related asset classes as the gold market and ETFs is my trading world. If gold is going to lift-off then the oil price should react bullish as well. That would be something if gold continued its bullish return, as then the Gold/Oil ratio will not stay the same.
When we count from the crude oil 2008 peak, the 2016 bottom gave crude oil an 8-year bear market, which makes a much better Fibonacci fit.