Crude Oil, Still In The Bullish Game?

 

Oil has not made the decline, like I hoped it would, but chances are good that a bigger correction still has to play out.  The bullish phase that started in June 2017 from the $44 price level, has a stubborn streak to it as it refuses to correct. This stunning rally could still see a 61% correction, which would bring oil back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.  One previous gully sits at the $50 price level so a 61% net retracement could end down at the second gully.

The Gold/Oil ratio isn’t exactly screaming cheap as it has been hanging around this 20.77:1 ratio for far too long.  Back in 2014 this ratio spiked to 17:1 before crude oil started to implode, so a 20:1 ratio is not all that far away from doing the same thing.

I wish I had a much better, wave count than what I see, but converting from winter fuels to summer fuels will change the crude oil dynamics somewhat. Of course the 2018 hurricane season could also have a huge impact, so oil could crash and then turn around and soar.

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