So far the crude oil down trend has had a good start, but it is still a bit early to tell. I might have to drop my degree level down by one degree in the future, but right now I can keep the same wave count that I started with. If the bigger bearish phase is real then the small double to you see could be the record high for oil in 2018.
On this June contract $66.20 seems to be the record to beat.
In order to confirm a potential Intermediate degree 4th wave top we need 5 waves down in Minor degree or even a single zigzag type move also in Minor degree.
What we just finished looks like a 4th wave top because immediately after, diagonal patterns started to emerge. Diagonals have a nasty habit of showing up in 5th wave declines, so instantly diagonal wave counting has to be used. Any wild spike early next week could still take out the top trend line, but we should always expect wild counter rallies after a steep decline.
The Gold/Oil ratio is now 21.36:1 and this ratio should keep on expanding as crude oil declines. I would also like to see all the COT reports in oil start to show that the commercials are becoming net long. At this time we are a far cry away from that happening.
This year it looks like the June and December months are the two busiest months, which is great. The December contract is running about $2 US dollars lower, so this does not support the oil bull market to keep going.