This is the September contract and I made some small adjustments to what is a diagonal wave pattern. With the world being fundamentally bullish and oil is pointing up, then showing you a potentially bearish scenario is hard to understand.
I expected the June rally and it started to hit resistance at $60. Even with trade wars, oil tanker attacks, tanker confiscation and a host of other fundamental reasons, crude oil can still crash. Just because shortages can spike the oil price at any time, does not mean a whole new bull market has started.
Every time there was a war in the Mideast during the 1990s, oil would spike from a $10 low to $40 and then back down to $10.
That was a 19-year bear market with a triangle in its “B” wave of Intermediate degree. Oil is presently in an 11-year bear market and it had a huge bullish phase until 2014-2015 after which it crashed to $28.
The Gold/Ratio is sitting at 24.2 which is a bit cheaper but it seems to be stuck on repeat as this ratio hasn’t moved much.
All commodities travel as diagonals and they have been doing this since the Little Ice Age. The 1890s DJIA pattern is so choppy it took me years to understand. This all change with the Roaring 20s as other investments took over.