Crude Oil Intraday Correction Review

Since early August crude oil has been on what looks like a correction. Where we are in this correction is another matter. The correction could have finished in late August, but that remains to be seen. Even now oil remains choppy with no real direction in mind.   Worst case scenario is that oil is in a triangle, but them we surely cannot be in a wave 2 positions. $58 is the big price top to beat, which would confirm that the entire bearish phase since mid 2016 was just a correction. 

Only one hurricane shows up at the Hurricane center web site, with Jose being far away from landfall and only rated as a category 1 at this time.  Another hurricane may form, but that can  still be 48 hours or more before we can see anything.  Hurricane Harvey wrecked havoc where 20% of oil refining is shut down. In the long run it will all work out, but these hurricanes are just part of the turmoil that is facing oil production and refining around the world.

September the 10th is the midway point of hurricane season lasting until November 30th. It seems that the types of storms also change in the second half of hurricane season.

The Gold/Oil ratio is just a bit below 27:1 which is still relatively cheap when comparing it to gold. This ratio has been drifting between 25 and 28:1 and until this ratio shifts dramatically towards 17:1 or lower, then the oil bull market is still alive. Oil could go to $89, and  if this ratio turns into a 17:1 reading or lower,  then we know to look for the end of the oil bull market. 

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