Crude Oil Intraday Bullish Update

Crude oil has been in a rally but this rally is so choppy that oil looks like it still is in a counter trend rally.  We may still have more upside but this rally should end and then resume its bigger bearish phase.  The December contract is still $1.21 lower than the June contract and over time I would expect that to change which could still take many months to switch.  The December contract is also very busy so I may switch to the December contract soon.

Panics happen when a small group sees the same thing at the same time, and any unexpected inventory number can do that.  Markets will always do the opposite of what ever trend the majority have established, as the majority can never win at this game. The majority never practice buying low and then selling high becuase they only love it when things go up. If not enough bulls keep buying then sooner or later this crude oil bullish phase will have a hardtime in staying with this northerly direction.

Those traders that can play both ways care little about fundamentals as they only care of what their TA is telling them. On a short scale we could also be facing an inverted wedge which is also very bearish.  Overall I remain bearish until a correction completes that will push oil into a new bull market phase.  So far this idea is pretty remote but by the fall the bearish phase will show itself to more participants.

I see the $40-$45 price level as a good resting spot but if any rally is still choppy, then even the $40 price level will not hold.

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